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在華行賄案陰影繼續(xù)困擾雅芳

在華行賄案陰影繼續(xù)困擾雅芳

Beth Kowitt 2013-11-08
由于海外反腐敗調(diào)查引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂,雅芳市值縮水估計(jì)已達(dá)7.50億美元。同時(shí),這項(xiàng)懸而未決的調(diào)查也讓這家直銷公司無法集中精力扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢(shì)。根據(jù)雅芳發(fā)布的最新財(cái)報(bào),它今年第三季度延續(xù)了去年全年的趨勢(shì),依然未能擺脫虧損。

????上周,雅芳(Avon)公司公布第三季度業(yè)績(jī)的時(shí)后,分析師們瞄準(zhǔn)的卻是這家公司正在接受的《海外反腐敗法》 (FCPA)調(diào)查。

????這項(xiàng)針對(duì)雅芳在華業(yè)務(wù)行賄指控的調(diào)查讓這家公司付出了沉重的代價(jià),同時(shí)還導(dǎo)致了公司高層離職?!敦?cái)富》雜志(Fortune)去年對(duì)此進(jìn)行過詳盡報(bào)道。分析師們希望能看到雅芳已經(jīng)擺脫了這件事情的影響,希望這家美容產(chǎn)品直銷公司能集中精力扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢(shì)(它公布第三季度虧損,與2012年全年一樣)。

????今年6月,雅芳向美國(guó)司法部(Department of Justice)和美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)提出1200萬美元的和解提議,結(jié)果遭到拒絕。雅芳CEO謝莉?麥科伊在上周的業(yè)績(jī)電話會(huì)議上表示,9月份SEC提出了一項(xiàng)和解提議,“其中的經(jīng)濟(jì)處罰力度大大高于我們之前的提議?!彼硎?,雅芳預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)司法部也會(huì)提出對(duì)立的提議。

????麥科伊表示,雅芳認(rèn)為SEC提出的金額沒有依據(jù)。不過,除此之外,她也沒有什么別的好說的了?!度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal) 8月份報(bào)道,有政府官員表示,對(duì)這家公司的罰金應(yīng)會(huì)超過1億美元。

????摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師達(dá)拉?莫森尼亞在近期的一份報(bào)告中估算,由于海外反腐敗調(diào)查引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂,雅芳的市值已經(jīng)縮水約7.50億美元——他認(rèn)為,這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)說明股東們的擔(dān)心過頭了。莫森尼亞回顧了歷史上的FCPA罰款,得出結(jié)論稱:“假如雅芳支付的罰款額類似于歷史上FCPA第10大罰款(9500萬美元) … (罰款額)也顯著低于市值縮水幅度7.50(億美元)。”莫森尼亞預(yù)計(jì)罰款最多是幾億美元,低一些也是有可能的。

????如果最終雅芳的罰款在1億美元左右,F(xiàn)CPA的執(zhí)行可能會(huì)遇到新的挑戰(zhàn)。根據(jù)莫森尼亞的回顧,史上只有9筆FCPA罰款超過1億美元。它們涉及到的公司是類似西門子(Siemens)、哈里伯頓(Halliburton)和BAE系統(tǒng)(BAE Systems)等等與政府合同有關(guān)的公司。莫森尼亞寫道:“它們的違法涉案金額看起來似乎不是一家直銷公司能相提并論的?!?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))????????

????When Avon Products (AVP) reported third-quarter earnings last week, analysts zeroed in on the ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) investigation into the company.

????The inquiry into allegations of bribery, which have focused on Avon's operations in China, has proven costly and led to high-level departures, as Fortune detailed last year. Analysts are eager to see Avon put this issue behind it so the direct seller of beauty products can focus on executing a turnaround (the company reported a loss in the quarter as it also did for all of 2012).

????Avon made a settlement offer to the Department of Justice and SEC in June for $12 million, which was subsequently rejected. CEO Sheri McCoy said on last week's earnings call that the SEC made its own offer in September that "included monetary penalties of a magnitude significantly greater than our earlier offer." She noted the company believes the DOJ also will make a counterproposal.

????There was nothing McCoy could add beyond saying that the company believes the amount put forward by the SEC is unwarranted. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that government officials have said that the company's penalty should be more than $100 million.

????Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian estimated in a recent note that Avon's market cap has lost $750 million on concerns related to the FCPA investigation -- a figure, in his view, that suggests that shareholders' fears are excessive. Mohsenian did a review of FCPA fines and came to the conclusion that "if Avon were to pay a similar amount to the 10th largest FCPA fine in history [$95 million] … [the] amount would be well below the $750 [million] implied market cap drop." Mohsenian expects the fines to come in at a few hundred million dollars at most and that a lower penalty is likely.

????If, in the end, Avon does end up with a fine even in the $100 million range, it could signal a new, tougher era for FCPA enforcement. According to Mohsenian's review, only nine FCPA penalties in history have come in at more than $100 million. They have involved companies like Siemens (SI), Halliburton (HAL), and BAE Systems and were related to government contracts -- "seemingly greater offenses than is likely at a direct seller," Mohsenian writes.

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