????眼下，日本股市正獲得“大開印鈔機(jī)”政策帶來的提振。此前美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）正是運(yùn)用了同樣的政策，給華爾街大筆砸錢。此外，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為美國的失敗銀行家間接支付的獎(jiǎng)金更是高達(dá)數(shù)萬億美元。與此同時(shí)，包括保羅?克魯格曼【美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席伯南克在普林斯頓大學(xué)（Princeton）的同事】在內(nèi)的一大批高級經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家繼續(xù)勸日本人大開印鈔機(jī)，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮。好像印刷更多美元和日元的貨幣政策已經(jīng)成為治愈一個(gè)國家經(jīng)濟(jì)弊病的靈丹妙藥。

????克魯格曼的專業(yè)研究領(lǐng)域之一當(dāng)然就是所謂的“流動(dòng)性陷阱”。流動(dòng)性陷阱發(fā)生在債券收益率降至極低水平使得市場將債券當(dāng)現(xiàn)金用的時(shí)候。他曾撰文指出，日本房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂后，日本“失去的十年”（或者是20年，具體取決于誰來回答這個(gè)問題）正是一個(gè)長期性的流動(dòng)性陷阱。就像經(jīng)歷了幾代殺蟲劑存活下來的蟑螂一樣，在流動(dòng)性陷阱中，市場已經(jīng)對進(jìn)一步的現(xiàn)金注入變得無動(dòng)于衷，似乎已經(jīng)免疫。根據(jù)凱恩斯主義經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，央行的功能是通過追加或收回流動(dòng)性（即在公開市場購買或出售債券）來管理利率。因此，在流動(dòng)性陷阱中，政府的政策是無法拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的。

????克魯格曼認(rèn)為，日本政府目前還沒有向其金融系統(tǒng)注入足夠多的現(xiàn)金。上個(gè)月的選舉之后，安倍政府地位得到鞏固，克魯格曼和他的凱恩斯主義擁躉得以坐觀一個(gè)真正的、進(jìn)行中的社會(huì)實(shí)驗(yàn)：安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)通過開動(dòng)印鈔機(jī)是否能夠拯救日本經(jīng)濟(jì)？還是說，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)還會(huì)繼續(xù)掉隊(duì)？

????要知道，不是每個(gè)人都認(rèn)為日本經(jīng)濟(jì)跟不上趟了。一些觀察家指出，大多數(shù)日本人在“失去的十年或二十年里”都保住了自己的工作。以生活質(zhì)量、外貿(mào)和匯率衡量，日本的過去一二十年并沒有“失去”。這也必須透過日本的文化價(jià)值觀和日本人的期望去看待：相比在企業(yè)的晉升空間，日本人更重視就業(yè)穩(wěn)定。

????無論如何，安倍晉三眼下很受歡迎，而且再次獲選擔(dān)任首相。他正盡全力大開日本印鈔機(jī)，而日本股市則因此節(jié)節(jié)高升，就像梅西百貨（Macy's）感恩節(jié)大游行時(shí)飄在空中的巨大充氣氣球。安倍晉三贏得選舉可以為日本急需的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革提供政治穩(wěn)定的保障，但現(xiàn)在他的所作所為和美國的定量寬松政策如出一轍——把錢免費(fèi)塞進(jìn)銀行家的口袋里。這項(xiàng)政策眼下應(yīng)該能有效地提振股票市場，但最終會(huì)有失效的那天。

????但是，亞洲其他地方也無法為我們提供慰藉。亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增速自2010年以來已經(jīng)下降近半，亞洲其他地區(qū)政策制定者基本上已經(jīng)無計(jì)可施。

????如果你還對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢持樂觀態(tài)度，現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候開始轉(zhuǎn)變立場了。

????中國一直是亞洲地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，去年在整個(gè)亞洲的GDP中占比近38%。現(xiàn)在中國政府承認(rèn)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長陷入低迷期，公開預(yù)測經(jīng)濟(jì)增速在7%左右，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于三年前的兩位數(shù)增幅。

????在過去大舉擴(kuò)張的年份里，中國的固定資本形成增速驚人。但很多都只是為了推高GDP的面子工程、形象工程，導(dǎo)致這個(gè)國家到處充斥著閑置的機(jī)場、爛尾的道路工程和寫字樓， 以及為這些沒有收入的項(xiàng)目所提供的銀行貸款。

????中國的銀行已經(jīng)成為有目共睹的定時(shí)炸彈。他們的資產(chǎn)已經(jīng)達(dá)到中國GDP的270%。這些“資產(chǎn)”中巨大比例已經(jīng)讓債權(quán)人損失慘重，它們被用于為做擺設(shè)的道路和橋梁、隧道和機(jī)場項(xiàng)目做擔(dān)保。整個(gè)金融體系的流動(dòng)性不斷流失之際，大型固定資產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目投資下降，中國的銀行面臨著一場潛在的危機(jī)。

????Right now, Japan's equity markets are being buoyed by the same "Print-And-Spend" policy that the Federal Reserve used to pay off Wall Street, emanating from the same ivory tower that paid untold trillions in bonuses to America's failed bankers. Meanwhile, a motley crew of high-level economists including Ben Bernanke's Princeton colleague Paul Krugman continue to exhort the Japanese to "Print! Print! Print!" their way to prosperity. As if printing more dollars and yens was some restorative, magical monetary panacea to cure a nation's economic ills.

????One of Krugman's areas of expertise is, of course, the "liquidity trap." This is when bond yields sink so low, the market treats them like cash. He has written that Japan's "lost decade," the 10 (or 20, depending on who you ask) years following the collapse of Japan's real estate bubble, was an extended liquidity trap. Like cockroaches dosed for generations with insecticides, in a liquidity trap the markets become immune to further cash injections. In Keynesian economics, the central bank's job is to manage interest rates by adding or withdrawing liquidity -- buying or selling bonds in the open market. Thus, in the liquidity trap government policy is incapable of stimulating economic growth.

????Krugman has argued that Japan's government hasn't thrown enough cash into the system. With the Abe government firmly in place after last month's elections, Krugman and his Keynesian buds have a ringside seat at a real live social experiment: Will Abe-nomics, with its tsunami of banknotes, bail out Japan, or will the economy continue to lag?

????Mind you, not everyone thinks Japan is lagging. Some observers point out that most Japanese kept their jobs during the "lost decades," and that measured by standard of living, foreign trade, and the strength of the currency, Japan's decades weren't "lost" at all. This must also be seen through the lens of cultural values and expectations: The Japanese value stability of employment more than the ability to climb the corporate ladder.

????Anyway, for the time being Shinzo Abe, the well-liked -- and re-elected -- Prime Minister, is printing Yen for all he's worth, and Japan's stock market is inflating like a giant balloon at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Abe's winning the election could provide the political stability for much-needed economic reforms, but for now he's mirroring America's experiment in putting free money in bankers' pockets. This policy should work well for their equity markets -- until it doesn't.

????But don't look anywhere else in Asia for comfort. The rest of Asia's policymakers are well and truly out of ammo as Asian economic growth has been nearly cut in half since 2010.

????And if you weren't worried about China, now would be a good time to start.

????China has been the main driver of growth in the region, accounting for nearly 38% of all Asian GDP last year. Now the Chinese government is acknowledging that growth is in a downturn, publicly forecasting growth in the 7% range -- well below the double digits of only three years ago.

????China's fixed capital formation grew like Topsy during the expansion years. But many of these were empty make-work projects designed only to inflate GDP, leaving the country awash in unused airports, unfinished roads and office buildings -- and in bank loans for these projects with no revenues.

????China's banks are a loudly ticking time bomb. Their assets are bloated to an estimated 270% of GDP. A huge percentage of those "assets" are already in creditor limbo, having secured roads and bridges and tunnels and airports to Nowhere. China's banks face a potential crisis as investment in major fixed asset projects declines amid eroding liquidity throughout the financial system.