????此外，貨幣層面也有問題。由于盈利能力減弱以及負債率上升，企業(yè)被迫將更多利潤用于償還債務，用于投資的利潤隨之減少。但政府似乎并不太擔心。政府官員看來已經(jīng)從上一次的刺激措施中吸取了教訓，那就是強制性大規(guī)模放貸會導致浪費和冒進。

????關鍵問題并不是經(jīng)濟增長率，而是經(jīng)濟對社會的影響。有一個很有力的觀點是，按照這個標準，近來中國的經(jīng)濟增長一直過快。全力以赴地追求更高的產(chǎn)出造成環(huán)境嚴重退化，而且可能促使人們對腐敗持放縱態(tài)度。

????經(jīng)濟增速放慢或許會讓更多的投資用于提高中國的長期幸福水平和健康水平。其中包括減少生產(chǎn)污染，真正實現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新以及創(chuàng)造人力資本。但最近公布的一些項目，比如世界上最大的單體建筑、最長的海底隧道以及萬眾矚目的空間項目，都表明中國積習難改。

????投資者對中國經(jīng)濟硬著陸的探討毫無用處。只要能保持充分就業(yè)以及比較穩(wěn)定的社會局勢，就算GDP每年只增長2%也完全可以接受。相反，如果勞資糾紛事件和破產(chǎn)現(xiàn)象激增，就算經(jīng)濟增長率達到7%也依然問題重重。

????或許測試經(jīng)濟是否硬著陸的最好方法就是看政府是否還能掌控局勢。在這方面進行推演基本上無異于玩一場政治文字游戲。中國總理李克強表示，經(jīng)濟增速還沒有跌到可接受的最低水平以下，無論這個可接受的最低水平是多少，這句話都讓人備受鼓舞。

????看起來目前最有可能的情況是決策層正在耐心等待。他們掌握著強有力的手段，比如強制性放貸、本幣貶值以及大規(guī)模推動基建，但這些手段都很粗放，所產(chǎn)生的結果都存在不確定性。目前，抱著“順其自然”的心態(tài)看來比較合適。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者：Charlie

????Still, there's a monetary problem. Because profitability is falling and leverage has risen, companies have to put more of their profits into servicing debt and less into investment. The government does not seem too bothered. Officials seem to have learned the lesson of the last stimulus: mandated mega-lending leads to wastage and recklessness.

????The key issue is not pace of growth, but the effect on society. There is a good argument that by that standard China's recent growth has been too fast. The all-out pursuit of more production led to grave environmental degradation and probably encouraged a lax attitude towards corruption.

????A slower-growing economy could allow for more investment in things that make China a happier, healthier place over the long run. Those would include cleaner production, genuine innovation and human capital. But some recently announced projects -- the world's largest free-standing building, the longest under-sea tunnel, a flamboyant space program -- suggest old habits die hard.

????Investors' talk of a hard landing in China is unhelpful. Even GDP growth of 2% a year would be quite acceptable, as long as employment remained adequate and social unrest low. Conversely, 7% growth with a spike in labor-related protests and bankruptcies would be tough.

????Perhaps the best test of a hard landing is whether the authorities appear to remain in control. Deducing that is largely a question of parsing political rhetoric. It's encouraging that Premier Li Keqiang says growth hasn't fallen below the minimum acceptable rate, whatever that is.

????What seems most likely is that policymakers are biding their time. The tools they have -- forced lending, currency depreciation, vast infrastructure mandates -- are powerful but they are also rough, and come with uncertain consequences. For now, the mentality of "best left alone" looks about right.