????2013年正成為中國穩(wěn)妥下調(diào)GDP增長目標(biāo)的一年。年初，國務(wù)院將原先8%的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正式下調(diào)至7.5%。上周，財政部長樓繼偉又將這一數(shù)字降至7%，而且說增長水平甚至有可能會更低。

????中國經(jīng)濟確實在減速——但這只是相對而言。中國國家主席習(xí)近平已經(jīng)告誡各級官員少操心GDP，多關(guān)注民生質(zhì)量，但投資者仍然把注意力集中在這個籠統(tǒng)的指標(biāo)上。7.5%的官方經(jīng)濟增長目標(biāo)已經(jīng)是20世紀(jì)90年以來的最低水平。接受較低的經(jīng)濟增長速度表明中國政府已經(jīng)摒棄了原先公認的理論，也就是經(jīng)濟增速低于8%可能會造成失業(yè)人數(shù)上升和社會局勢不穩(wěn)。

????從觀察人士的角度而言，6%的經(jīng)濟增長率對中國來說顯得很不尋常。不久之前中國的正常發(fā)展速度還在10%以上。但按照其他中等收入國家的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，中國的經(jīng)濟形勢仍然格外的好。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)計，今年拉美和中東的GDP增幅均為3%。

????中國經(jīng)濟增速放緩有三方面的原因。首先，對中國出口商品的需求正增長得越來越慢。6月份中國出口額下降了3%，表現(xiàn)特別低迷，過去12個月的平均增長率也處于2010年初以來的最低水平。人民幣升值也帶來了不利影響，需求疲軟也是如此。但隨著中國富裕水平的提高，本幣升值是正?，F(xiàn)象，以廉價勞動力為基礎(chǔ)的出口則逐漸消失。

????其次，經(jīng)濟引力的影響正在逐漸增強。中國的勞動力群體已經(jīng)停止了增長，城鎮(zhèn)化步伐也開始放慢，原因是已經(jīng)有這么多的人離開了農(nóng)村。更讓人擔(dān)心的是投資效率的下降。幾年前，GDP增長一塊錢只需要一塊錢的投資，現(xiàn)在則需要差不多四塊錢。

????最后，中國政府不再設(shè)法和經(jīng)濟引力抗衡。政府對刺激措施已經(jīng)有了了解，2009年中國曾經(jīng)大舉保增長、促內(nèi)需。財政赤字只占中國GDP 的2%，大型銀行完全在政府的控制之下，這種情況下中國政府手里有牌可打。經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)也在政府的掌握之中，因此基本上已公布的數(shù)字都很合適。顯然，政府對GDP增長率下滑心里有數(shù)。

????中國的經(jīng)濟增長一直靠借貸推動。但還沒有跡象表明是信貸緊縮造成了目前的經(jīng)濟放緩。政府對“影子銀行”，也就是銀行表外放貸活動的整治可能會讓經(jīng)濟受到打擊；作為受到政府青睞的新增流動性衡量指標(biāo)，社會融資規(guī)模最近出現(xiàn)下降。但能更好地體現(xiàn)GDP所受影響的6個月平均社會融資規(guī)模仍在上升。

????For China, 2013 is becoming the year of the credible shrinking GDP growth target. Earlier in the year, the old 8% norm was shaved down to an official estimate of 7.5% by China's State Council. Last week, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei moved that to 7%, and said an even lower number was possible.

????China's slowdown is real -- but relative. While President Xi Jinping has told China's officials to worry less about GDP and more about quality of life, investors still focus on the crude indication. The official target of a 7.5%increase would already have created China's slowest growth since 1990. The official acceptance of a lower number shows that the old received wisdom -- anything below 8% puts China at risk of rising unemployment and social unrest -- has been discarded.

????For China-watchers, 6% growth sounds bizarre. It was not that long ago that double digits were normal. But by the standards of the other middle-income countries, China is still doing exceptionally well. The International Monetary Fund expects 3% GDP growth this year in both Latin America and the Middle East.

????It has three causes. First, demand for exports from China is slowing. June's 3% decline is especially weak, but the average increase over the last twelve months is the slowest rate since the beginning of 2010. A strong currency hurts, as does weak demand. But as China gets richer, it's natural that the currency rises and that exports based on cheap labor fade away.

????Second, economic gravity is catching up. The Chinese workforce is no longer increasing and the pace of urbanization is slowing because so many people have already left the farms. Of more concern is the decreasing efficiency of investment. A few years ago, only one yuan of investment was needed to add a yuan to GDP. Now it takes almost four yuan.

????Finally, the authorities are not trying to fight gravity. The government knows about stimulus; it did a huge one in 2009. With a fiscal deficit of just 2% of GDP and total control of the big banks, it has the means. It also controls the statistics, so can basically report whatever number suits. Clearly, the authorities are comfortable with lower GDP growth numbers.

????China's growth has been fueled by borrowing. But there's no sign that the slowdown has been created by a credit crunch. The official effort to rein in "shadow banking," loans that do not appear on banks' books, may hurt; and total social financing, the government's favored measure of new money pumped into the economy, has come down recently. But the six-month average of social financing, a good measure of what's affecting GDP today, is rising.