????不斷變化的市場(chǎng)使其他PC制造商不得不更加注重創(chuàng)意，于是促成了葛文德所謂的計(jì)算機(jī)歷史上史無(wú)前例的試驗(yàn)時(shí)期。比如，今年早些時(shí)候，戴爾發(fā)布了僅有5磅重的XPS 18一體機(jī)。這款機(jī)器配有18.4寸觸摸屏，意味著用戶在家中可以隨意移動(dòng)。而有報(bào)道稱臺(tái)灣公司宏碁（Acer）將嘗試不同的方向。宏碁下周推出的全新一體機(jī)將放棄微軟和英特爾（Intel），轉(zhuǎn)而運(yùn)行谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）操作系統(tǒng)，同時(shí)使用德州儀器（Texas Instruments）的芯片。

????這些產(chǎn)品正是葛文德和高德納研究公司（Gartner Research）的北川美佳子等分析師們對(duì)PC行業(yè)保持樂(lè)觀的原因。他們認(rèn)為，即使PC裝機(jī)量有所下降，PC行業(yè)依然能夠堅(jiān)持下去。據(jù)高德納預(yù)測(cè)，PC裝機(jī)量下降的趨勢(shì)將從明年首先在美國(guó)開(kāi)始，下降約4%，降至1.8億臺(tái)，并在2015年將蔓延至全球。過(guò)去，一個(gè)三口之家可能有兩至三臺(tái)電腦，但北川美佳子預(yù)測(cè)，這種情形將一去不復(fù)返。消費(fèi)者將使用平板電腦完成大部分任務(wù)，而PC將被用于完成一些繁重的任務(wù)。

????隨著計(jì)算機(jī)進(jìn)一步發(fā)生必要的進(jìn)化，它們將以更多令人驚奇的形式出現(xiàn)。有些東西已經(jīng)在行業(yè)內(nèi)出現(xiàn)，比如谷歌眼鏡。屆時(shí)甚至?xí)霈F(xiàn)“嵌入式計(jì)算設(shè)備”。這類設(shè)備的計(jì)算活動(dòng)不需要大量用戶輸入，而是可以跟蹤用戶日常生活：Nest智能恒溫器就是最好的例子。葛文德說(shuō)：“如果是這樣，那就相當(dāng)于迅猛龍變成了鳥(niǎo)類。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????The changing market is forcing other PC makers to also get more creative, leading to what Gownder calls the most unprecedented period of experimentation in the history of computing. To wit, Dell launched its XPS 18 earlier this year, a five-pound all-in-one desktop with an 18.4-inch touch screen meant for users to move around the home. Likewise, Taiwan-based Acer will reportedly take a different tack when it announces a new all-in-one desktop next week shunning Microsoft and Intel (INTC), and running Google's (GOOG) Android operating system with a Texas Instruments (TXN) chip.

????Products like these are what make analysts like Gownder and Gartner Research analyst Mikako Kitagawa optimistic the PC will stick around even if the number of "installed" PCs declines, which Gartner predicts will start happening next year in the U.S., falling 4% to 180 million units, and globally in 2015. In the past, a household with three family members might have two or three computers, but that scenario won't happen any more, predicts Kitagawa. They'll rely on tablets for most things, and one PC shared among them to do the heavy lifting.

????As computers further evolve out of necessity, they will yield even more surprising form factors, something the industry is already seeing with Google Glass and even tangentially, "embedded computing devices," devices with computing activity that don't require a lot of user input but track various aspects of users' day-to-day: the Nest home thermostat being one contemporary example. Says Gownder: "In this case, the velociraptor has turned into a finch."