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彭博要不要提防Twitter

彭博要不要提防Twitter

Omar Akhtar 2013-04-26
彭博社一直是金融、銀行、證券和其他專(zhuān)業(yè)人士在財(cái)經(jīng)數(shù)據(jù)、新聞與分析方面的首選。但是現(xiàn)在,隨著Twitter的崛起,Dataminr等社交媒體數(shù)據(jù)分析公司正依靠發(fā)布速度向彭博社發(fā)起挑戰(zhàn)。

????彭博社(Bloomberg)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直以身為財(cái)經(jīng)數(shù)據(jù)、新聞與分析的首要提供商而自豪,但它可以在提供新聞的速度上跟勝過(guò)社交媒體嗎?

????投資者根據(jù)行業(yè)新聞而迅速作出相應(yīng)的決策,數(shù)百萬(wàn)美元就會(huì)因此而轉(zhuǎn)手。這就是為什么投資者愿意每年支付20,000美元的費(fèi)用來(lái)使用彭博終端系統(tǒng)。構(gòu)成彭博社核心業(yè)務(wù)的這項(xiàng)服務(wù)聚合了來(lái)自1,000多家新聞機(jī)構(gòu)和90,000家網(wǎng)站的信息。這些信息對(duì)那些希望為自己的投資策略搶占優(yōu)勢(shì)的客戶(hù)而言至關(guān)重要。一些公司——比如總部位于紐約的初創(chuàng)公司Dataminr——聲稱(chēng),他們可以獲取、分析社交媒體上提供的信息,以比各大通訊社更快的速度來(lái)提供影響市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)的重要信息。

????4月23日,黑客入侵美聯(lián)社(AP)官方Twitter帳戶(hù),詐稱(chēng)白宮受到攻擊。隨后數(shù)秒鐘之內(nèi),道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)便暴跌146點(diǎn)。雖然在這個(gè)騙局被揭穿之后股市迅速回升,但這起事件表明,現(xiàn)在有許多華爾街交易員依靠Twitter獲取交易信息。

????Dataminr表示,它能夠在重大新聞發(fā)布前兩分鐘就提醒客戶(hù)小心騙局。這家初創(chuàng)公司與Twitter建立了合作關(guān)系,可以獲得Twitter平臺(tái)上每日近4億條Twitter短信的全部“流水”記錄。它設(shè)置了事件檢測(cè)軟件,可以查閱整個(gè)Twitter圈(Twittersphere),來(lái)識(shí)別與其客戶(hù)設(shè)置的監(jiān)視名單上列出的話題、行業(yè)或公司相吻合的活動(dòng)熱點(diǎn)或新出現(xiàn)的趨勢(shì)。這家公司表示,通過(guò)這種方式,它可以向政府機(jī)構(gòu)或金融公司提供有用的信息。

????這家公司在發(fā)現(xiàn)前美國(guó)國(guó)防部官員發(fā)布的一條Twitter消息之后,成為最先報(bào)道奧薩馬?本?拉登被擊斃消息的實(shí)體之一。在又出現(xiàn)19條涉及這個(gè)話題的Twitter短消息之后,該公司便向其客戶(hù)發(fā)出了提醒消息,在這些客戶(hù)收到這個(gè)消息的20分鐘之后,傳統(tǒng)新聞網(wǎng)站才發(fā)布了這個(gè)消息。(Dataminr發(fā)言人沒(méi)有對(duì)就此事予以置評(píng)的要求作出回應(yīng)。)

????在納秒必爭(zhēng)才能獲得優(yōu)勢(shì)的新聞報(bào)道行業(yè)里,從一個(gè)沒(méi)有多少地域限制的龐大網(wǎng)絡(luò)中獲得實(shí)時(shí)新聞和數(shù)據(jù)至為關(guān)鍵。比如,一家煉油廠發(fā)生火災(zāi)會(huì)促使汽油價(jià)格短暫飆升。雖然通訊社會(huì)在事件發(fā)生數(shù)分鐘之后報(bào)道這個(gè)新聞,但來(lái)自事件實(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)的Twitter短消息可以實(shí)時(shí)提醒投資者,從而讓他們可以在市場(chǎng)上完成一筆賺錢(qián)的交易。

????除了速度之外,Twitter數(shù)據(jù)分析還有望為各大公司提供所謂的情緒分析——即對(duì)人們的感覺(jué)進(jìn)行估量。這種分析可以實(shí)時(shí)進(jìn)行,不僅估量消費(fèi)者對(duì)整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的“情緒”,而且還可以估量人們對(duì)具體的市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷(xiāo)活動(dòng)、產(chǎn)品發(fā)布及個(gè)人代言作出的反應(yīng)。2010年,美國(guó)印第安納大學(xué)(Indiana University)信息學(xué)教授約翰?博倫發(fā)表了一份研究報(bào)告。報(bào)告發(fā)現(xiàn),Twitter上的社會(huì)情緒可以預(yù)測(cè)道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)的波動(dòng),而且準(zhǔn)確率驚人地高達(dá)87%。博倫說(shuō):“Twitter平臺(tái)絕對(duì)是一個(gè)非常有影響力的環(huán)境,社交媒體網(wǎng)站上的用戶(hù)成為傳感器。確實(shí)有群體智慧這回事?!?/p>

????Bloomberg LP has long prided itself on being the premier provider of financial data, news, and analytics, but can it deliver news faster than social media?

????Millions of dollars can change hands through the rapid decisions investors make based on industry news. It's why they're willing to pay an average of $20,000 a year to use a Bloomberg terminal. The service, which makes up Bloomberg's core business, aggregates information from more than 1,000 news organizations and 90,000 websites, vital to clients looking for any kind of advantage for their investment strategies. Companies like New York-based startup Dataminr claim they can deliver market-moving information faster than the newswires by accessing and analyzing information available on social media.

????Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 146 points within seconds after a hacked AP account falsely claimed the White House was under attack. While the market recovered quickly after the hoax was exposed, it showed just how many Wall Street traders were now relying on Twitter for trading information.

????Dataminr says it was able to alert its clients to the hoax a full two minutes ahead of major news. The startup has partnered with Twitter to access the entire "firehose" of nearly 400 million daily tweets on the platform. It implements event detection software that trawls the Twittersphere to identify hotspots of activity or emerging trends that match its client's watchlist of topics, industries or companies. In this way, it says it can provide useful information to governments or finance firms.

????The company was one of the first entities to report the news of Osama Bin Laden's death after spotting a tweet by a former Defense Department official. It only took 19 more tweets about the subject before the company sent an alert out to its clients, who received the news 20 minutes before it broke on traditional news sites. (Dataminr representatives did not respond to request for comment.)

????Access to real-time news and data from a massive network with few geographic restrictions is crucial in a practice where an edge is gained by nanoseconds. For example, a fire at an oil refinery could briefly spike the price of gasoline. While it could take newswires several minutes to report the story, tweets from the actual incident could alert investors in real time and allow them to make a profitable trade.

????In addition to speed, Twitter analytics promise to provide companies with so-called sentiment analysis -- a measure of how people feel. This can be done in real time, gauging not just the broad market "mood" of consumers, but also people's reactions to marketing campaigns, product introductions, and personal endorsements. In 2010, Indiana University informatics professor Johan Bollen published a study that found social sentiment on Twitter could predict swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average with a startling 87% accuracy. "It's definitely a very powerful environment, you have people acting as human sensors," says Bollen. "There is such a thing as the wisdom of the crowd."

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