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美年輕人不愿借債消費(fèi)背后的問(wèn)題

美年輕人不愿借債消費(fèi)背后的問(wèn)題

Nin-Hai Tseng 2013-03-01
據(jù)皮尤研究中心的一份報(bào)告顯示,美國(guó)35歲以下的年輕家庭平均債務(wù)正在減少。年輕的美國(guó)人不愿像父輩一樣背負(fù)大量房貸、卡貸透支消費(fèi),這對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)可不是好兆頭。經(jīng)濟(jì)健康時(shí),消費(fèi)者和貸款方都樂(lè)于承擔(dān)更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。反過(guò)來(lái)說(shuō),如果人們不愿意背債,說(shuō)明對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景沒(méi)信心。

????自金融危機(jī)發(fā)生以來(lái),很多美國(guó)人都不想再大量負(fù)債了。房主們發(fā)現(xiàn),勉為其難買棟大房子會(huì)讓自己在接下來(lái)的好幾年里陷入財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。而找不到工作的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生則沒(méi)法償還自己的學(xué)生貸款。他們不禁會(huì)懷疑,辛辛苦苦得來(lái)的學(xué)位真的值得嗎。而就在歐洲設(shè)法應(yīng)付自己的債務(wù)危機(jī)時(shí),華盛頓的立法者們則在苦苦努力,試圖削減美國(guó)的赤字。

????的確,這場(chǎng)危機(jī)讓很多人都得到了慘痛的教訓(xùn)。但是債務(wù)本身并不總是壞事。債務(wù)上升反映出經(jīng)濟(jì)體在健康發(fā)展——健康的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,消費(fèi)者和貸款方都樂(lè)于承擔(dān)更多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????不過(guò),現(xiàn)在的年輕人已不再愿意背負(fù)父輩那么多的債務(wù)了。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)走勢(shì)向好,這種趨勢(shì)是否還會(huì)持續(xù)尚無(wú)法確定,但是皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一份報(bào)告顯示,35歲以下的年輕人比他們的長(zhǎng)輩更快地償還貸款。這項(xiàng)研究并沒(méi)有說(shuō)明這種現(xiàn)象是好是壞,但有很多跡象表明,債務(wù)減少意味著千禧一代對(duì)自己的財(cái)務(wù)狀況感到焦慮,而不是勇于承擔(dān)責(zé)任。

????這是個(gè)負(fù)面信號(hào)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(The Federal Reserve)的超低利率政策讓消費(fèi)者能借貸更高的額度,從而拉動(dòng)了房地產(chǎn)和汽車銷量,但是現(xiàn)在的年輕人從央行的債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃中獲得的好處似乎比父輩要少。

????這份報(bào)告稱,35歲以下人士組成的家庭中,2010年的債務(wù)中值為15,473美元,比2007年的22,000美元減少了29%。與之相比,35歲及以上人士組成的家庭中,債務(wù)中值的下降幅度就小得多,只有8%。

????毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),這個(gè)下降趨勢(shì)部分反映出年輕人在房貸和消費(fèi)支出上雙雙減少。不過(guò)它并不必然表明年輕人無(wú)力承擔(dān)房貸,因?yàn)楹芏嗳顺鲇诟鞣N原因推遲了結(jié)婚年齡(而結(jié)婚往往意味著就要買房)。不過(guò),主要由年輕人構(gòu)成的首次購(gòu)房群體所占份額確實(shí)減少了。而且年輕人承擔(dān)信用卡債務(wù)和車貸的意愿也下降了,表明他們的財(cái)力無(wú)法應(yīng)付每月還款的需要。與2001年的50%相比,2010年僅有39%的年輕家庭有信用卡債務(wù)。至于汽車,2010年,25歲以下的人士組成的家庭中有73%擁有或至少租了一輛車。而2011年,這個(gè)比例下降到了66%。

????可能最讓人費(fèi)解的是,其他各類消費(fèi)貸款都在下降的同時(shí),學(xué)生貸款卻在上升。不過(guò),對(duì)年輕家庭來(lái)說(shuō),家庭債務(wù)的四分之三還是來(lái)自房貸,而學(xué)生債務(wù)僅占15%。

????這份研究的結(jié)論和其他一些關(guān)注年輕人財(cái)務(wù)狀況的研究如出一轍。2012年,羅格斯大學(xué)(Rutgers University)對(duì)畢業(yè)生做過(guò)一份調(diào)研。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),40%的人表示學(xué)生債務(wù)導(dǎo)致他們推遲了大宗消費(fèi),比如房子或車子。面對(duì)每個(gè)月要付的大筆賬單,近期畢業(yè)的大學(xué)生掙的卻沒(méi)有以前的畢業(yè)生多。2009年到2011年間畢業(yè)的學(xué)生,年薪中位數(shù)比2007年減少了3,000美元到27,000美元。這個(gè)差距非常巨大。這筆錢可能意味著足夠支付買房的首付款,或是用來(lái)購(gòu)買衣服家具等一大堆東西。

????而就現(xiàn)在來(lái)說(shuō),不愿負(fù)債的千禧一代已經(jīng)變成了幾乎什么都靠租的一代人。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:清遠(yuǎn)

????Since the Great Recession, countless Americans have shunned the idea of taking on more debt. Homeowners discovered that stretching to buy bigger houses would result in years of financial turmoil. Jobless college grads unable to pay down their student loans now wonder if their degrees are really worth it. And as Europe grapples with its own debt problems, Washington lawmakers struggle to find a way to reduce the U.S. deficit.

????Indeed, many have learned a few harsh lessons. But debt isn't always a bad thing. More of it can reflect a healthy economy -- one where consumers, as well as lenders feel comfortable taking on more risks.

????Young adults, however, haven't taken on nearly as much debt as their parents. It's uncertain if the trend will continue as the economy improves, but for now, those under 35 years old have shed debt faster than older ones, according to a report by Pew Research Center released last week. The study doesn't say if this is a good or bad development, but many signs suggest the drop means Millenials are more anxious than responsible about their finances.

????It's a negative sign. The Federal Reserve's policies to keep interest rates super-low has spurred more home and car sales by getting consumers to borrow more, but it appears young adults have benefitted less from the central bank's bond-buying program.

????Across households headed by people under 35 years old, median debt fell by 29% to $15,473 in 2010, compared with $22,000 in 2007, according to the report. That compares with a much smaller 8% drop at households headed by those 35 and older during the same period.

????To be sure, the decline partly reflects a fall in home loans and purchases by young adults. This doesn't necessarily signal that younger people aren't able to afford a house, since many have been delaying marriage (which is typically followed by homeownership) for various reasons. However, the share of first-time homebuyers typically comprised of young adults has fallen. And young people are less willing to take on credit card debt and auto loans, suggesting they aren't in financial positions to commit to monthly payments. Compared with 50% in 2001, only 39% of young households in 2010 had credit card debt. When it comes to vehicles, 73% of households headed by an adult younger than 25 years old in 2001 owned or leased at least one vehicle. By 2011, that share fell to 66%.

????What's maybe most perplexing is that student debt has increased while all other consumer loans fell. Still, roughly three-quarters of household debt for young adults comes from home loans; student debt makes up only 15%.

????The study's results are similar to other research looking at the finances of young adults. In a 2012 Rutgers University survey of college graduates, 40% said student debt was making them delay large-scale purchases, such as a house or a car. Faced with big monthly payments, recent college graduates aren't earning as much as graduates before them. The median salary for those graduating between 2009 and 2011 was $27,000 -- $3,000 less than 2007. The difference is significant. It could mean having enough to help with a down payment on a home or spending money for everything from clothes and furniture.

????For now, the no-debt Millenials have spawned a generation that rents most everything.

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