????隨著全球各大公司紛紛完成2013年的預(yù)算方案，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，各公司的預(yù)算均非常保守，這種情況在硅谷之前的幾十年時間里非常罕見。雖然許多開支預(yù)測均高于2012年，但這在很大程度上是因為2012年科技開支非常慘淡。換言之，全球科技企業(yè)將迎來一種新的常態(tài)。

????每年，各大研究公司都會對信息與技術(shù)高管進行調(diào)查，了解他們對于新技術(shù)投入的預(yù)測。對于向其他公司銷售產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)的軟硬件公司來說，這些調(diào)查結(jié)果通常具有風(fēng)向標(biāo)的意義。

????多年以來，在低迷的全球經(jīng)濟背景下，面向消費市場的科技公司表現(xiàn)遠遠優(yōu)于面向企業(yè)市場的同行。比如，谷歌（Google）與蘋果（Apple）等公司的收入和利潤增長依然強勁，而IBM和微軟（Microsoft）等老牌公司則陷入增長困境。

????例如，按照谷歌2012年的年報，它的收入增長幅度預(yù)計將達到43%，而蘋果公司上一財年的總收入則增長了45%。與此相反，分析人士預(yù)測，微軟年增長率約為9%；而在IBM本月即將公布的報告中，分析師預(yù)測其收入可能會減少2%。

????自2009年以來，受到經(jīng)濟衰退的影響，2012年或許是商務(wù)科技最為艱難的一年。根據(jù)科技研究公司高德納（Gartner）與弗雷斯特（Forrester）的計算結(jié)果，截至2012年底，各大公司的開支僅比2011年增加了1.2%，增速非常緩慢。最初，兩家公司一直預(yù)測，2012年公司開支增長幅度應(yīng)該接近5%。

????本月早些時候，兩家公司分別發(fā)布了2013年的預(yù)測報告。高德納預(yù)計，今年IT開支將增加4.2%，比之前3.8%的預(yù)測有所提高。而弗雷斯特的預(yù)測結(jié)果更為樂觀，其預(yù)測IT開支將增加5.4%。但這些增長很大程度上是由于貨幣波動造成的。按美元計算，高德納預(yù)測的漲幅為3.9%，而弗雷斯特預(yù)測的漲幅則為3.3%。

????華爾街的其他研究人員則并沒有這么樂觀。高盛（Goldman Sachs）11月公布的一份調(diào)查預(yù)測，美國IT開支將增加3%。而摩根大通（ JP Morgan）的一份報告則在科技行業(yè)引起軒然大波。它預(yù)測全球IT增長率僅有1.7%，遠遠低于2.4%的全球GDP增長率。

????當(dāng)然，高德納與弗雷斯特發(fā)布報告的時間晚于華爾街，而且當(dāng)時圍繞財政懸崖的各種不確定因素也開始日漸明朗。這些不確定因素一度使許多公司擔(dān)心，預(yù)算談判可能將美國經(jīng)濟拖入又一輪衰退，因此對如何分配資金也尤為謹慎。不過，摩根大通似乎打算一直堅持其看跌的預(yù)測。周一，分析師馬克?莫斯科維奇便根據(jù)1.7%的增長預(yù)測，將IBM和電子設(shè)備制造商EMC公司的評級從“超配”下調(diào)為“均配”。

????由于各大公司縮減IT預(yù)算，許多大型科技公司的股票在近幾年表現(xiàn)不佳。2012年，英特爾（Intel）、微軟、IBM和惠普（Hewlett-Packard）在股市的表現(xiàn)均落后于標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)（S&P 500，增長13%），且其市盈率也遠遠低于大盤（目前為17倍）。

????As companies around the globe put the final touches on their 2013 budget plans, they are applying a modesty that was rare during earlier decades of Silicon Valley growth. And while many forecasts are calling for stronger spending than we saw in 2012, that's mostly because 2012 was a particularly dismal year for tech spending. In other words, the new normal has taken over the world of enterprise tech.

????Every year, research firms survey information and technology executives to come up with their best guesses at how much money will be spent on new technology. The surveys are regarded as bellwethers for hardware and software companies that sell the bulk of their products and services to other corporations.

????For several years, tech companies that rely more on consumers have weathered the weak global economy better than their peers in the enterprise sector. While companies like Google (GOOG)and Apple (AAPL) have seen strong revenue and profit growth, stalwarts like IBM (IBM) and Microsoft (MSFT) have struggled to eke out any growth.

????Google, for example, is expected to see its revenue grow 43% when it reports 2012 earnings, while Apple posted 45% growth in its last fiscal year. Microsoft, by contrast, is expected by analysts to see 9% annual growth, while analysts are bracing for a 2% decline in revenue when IBM reports revenue this month.

????But 2012 may have been the toughest year for business technology since 2009, in the depths of the Great Recession. Tech-research firms Gartner and Forrester both calculated that when all was said and done in 2012, companies ended up spending only 1.2% more than they did in 2011, an anemic rate at best. Initially, both firms had been calling for growth closer to 5% for 2012.

????Earlier this month, the two firms issued reports with their forecasts for 2013. Gartner is looking for IT spending to increase by 4.2% this year, a few notches up from its previous forecast of 3.8% growth. Forrester is projecting an even cheerier 5.4% gain. But much of these increases are due to currency fluctuations. In dollar terms, Gartner expects a 3.9% rise and Forrester a 3.3% rise.

????Other researchers at Wall Street firms are expecting even slower growth. A survey from Goldman Sachs released in November forecast 3% growth in U.S. IT spending. A second report from JP Morgan sent some shock waves through the tech sector when projected global IT growth of just of just 1.7%—below the global GDP growth rate of 2.4%.

????To be sure, the Gartner and Forrester reports came several weeks after the Wall Street reports and at a time when much of the uncertainty surrounding the fiscal cliff was beginning to clear up. That uncertainty had left many companies especially cautious about allocating money if U.S. budget negotiations pushed the economy into another recession. But JP Morgan seems to be standing by its bearish forecast. On Monday, analyst Mark Moskowitz cut his ratings on IBM and EMC (EMC) to Neutral from Overweight, citing the 1.7% growth estimate.

????The stocks of several large tech companies have had a rough time in recent years, thanks to the penny-pinching in IT budgets. Intel (INTC), Microsoft, IBM and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) all underperformed the S&P 500's 13% gain in 2012. And have been trading well below that index's price-earnings ratio, which currently stands at 17.