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策略師:美國總統(tǒng)就職日,財政懸崖大限時

策略師:美國總統(tǒng)就職日,財政懸崖大限時

Stephen Gandel 2013-01-04
高盛資產(chǎn)管理負(fù)責(zé)人、同時也是“金磚四國”叫法的提出者認(rèn)為,如果不能在奧巴馬宣誓就職前達(dá)成協(xié)議,避免財政懸崖,美國股市將遭遇重創(chuàng)。隨后,在美國躲避歐債危機(jī)的資本也會大量流出美國。
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????高盛資產(chǎn)管理(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事長吉姆·奧尼爾表示,美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬和共和黨人士還有三周時間可以達(dá)成預(yù)算協(xié)議。如果在1月20日美國總統(tǒng)正式宣誓就職前不能達(dá)成協(xié)議、避免財政懸崖,他預(yù)計市場將大跌。

????“市場依然認(rèn)為我們會在宣誓就職日前達(dá)成協(xié)議,”奧尼爾表示?!叭绻劜粩n就麻煩了?!?/p>

????雖然最近美國股市略有下跌,市場并未對財政懸崖做出強(qiáng)烈反應(yīng)——加稅及縮減政府開支定于1月1日起實(shí)施。一些人認(rèn)為,由于財政懸崖事實(shí)上更像是一個斜坡,會隨著時間的推移逐步加深,對市場的影響也將逐步加劇。上周,筆者說過,此次財政懸崖或許根本就損害不到市場。

????但高盛的奧尼爾認(rèn)為,雖然1月2日市場可能不會大跌,但美國股市走勢不受財政懸崖影響的時間不會持續(xù)多久了。奧尼爾是一位擁躉眾多的市場策略師,他最出名的就是在10多年前創(chuàng)造了“金磚四國”(BRIC)一詞,用來描述巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的興起。

????“現(xiàn)在,特別是茶黨人士中間,存在這樣一種有觀點(diǎn),認(rèn)為如果發(fā)生一場危機(jī),推動預(yù)算方面出現(xiàn)應(yīng)有的突破,或許不是什么壞事,”奧尼爾說。“這種想法有點(diǎn)危險?!?/p>

????奧尼爾表示,問題是,總體而言,現(xiàn)在的美國股市沒有太多吸引力。他說,美國股市遠(yuǎn)沒有一、兩年前那么有吸引力了。當(dāng)時,美國第一個走出了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。這也正是為何奧尼爾認(rèn)為,如果不能達(dá)成財政懸崖協(xié)議,美國股市可能遭遇重創(chuàng)。美國股市比一些人想象地更有韌性。此前,面對一些不那么糟糕的消息,美國股市都輕松頂住了沖擊。

????另外,奧尼爾表示,美國不是歐洲,美國股市此前也得益于此。歐債問題導(dǎo)致投資者將美國作為避風(fēng)港。但奧尼爾表示,這種情況似乎正在發(fā)生變化。他認(rèn)為,到明年年中,歐洲可能已經(jīng)達(dá)成協(xié)議,投資者對歐元區(qū)的債務(wù)問題感到較為安心,導(dǎo)致更多的資產(chǎn)流出美國。

????奧尼爾說:“最近我和一些超大型投資者、特別是亞洲的投資者,進(jìn)行了會面。給我的感覺是,人們越來越認(rèn)為,歐洲在應(yīng)對財政問題方面做得比美國好得多。”

????Jim O'Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says President Obama and Republicans have another three weeks to make a budget deal. He says if there isn't a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff by inauguration day, which is officially January 20th, the market will plunge.

????"The market is still assuming we will have a deal by inauguration day," says O'Neill. "If not, problem."

????While stocks have fallen a bit recently, the market has yet to freak out about the fiscal cliff - the mix of tax increases and government spending cuts that are set to begin January 1st. Some have argued that since?the fiscal cliff is actually more like a slope, with changes being phased in over time, the market impact will be gradual as well. Last week, I argued that the fiscal cliff might?not actually hurt the market at all.

????Goldman's O'Neill, though, says that while the market won't likely plunge on January 2, he thinks stocks won't shrug off the fiscal cliff for much longer, either. O'Neill, a widely followed market strategist, is best known for coining the term BRICs more than a decade ago to describe the growing emergence of the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China.

????"There is this view, particularly among some of these Tea Party guys, that maybe to get a proper budget breakthrough it's not a bad thing if there's a crisis," says O'Neill. "That thinking is a bit dangerous."

????The problem, according to O'Neill, is there's not that much to like about U.S. stocks in general. He says U.S. stocks are not nearly as attractive as they were a year or two ago, when the U.S. was first coming out of the recession. That's why O'Neill says the lack of a fiscal cliff deal could hit the U.S. stock market, which has been coasting along on not so bad news, harder than some people think.

????What's more, O'Neill says U.S. markets have benefited from not being Europe. Debt problems there have caused investors to seek out the safety of the U.S. O'Neill says that seems to be changing. He thinks by mid-year we could have a deal in Europe that will make investors feel a lot more comfortable with the Euro's debt problems, and as a result shift more and more of their assets out of the U.S.

????"The meetings I have had with very large investors recently, particularly in Asia, left me with the idea that there is a growing realization that Europe is dealing with some of its fiscal issues much better than the U.S.," says O'Neill.

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