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量化寬松為什么不管用

量化寬松為什么不管用

Stephen Gandel 2012-12-13
本周三,美聯(lián)儲宣布推出第四輪量化寬松,但業(yè)界對該政策的前景并不看好。前幾輪量化寬松并未達到預期效果,企業(yè)正在用這些成本低廉的融資償還舊債,或干脆把錢存了起來,而不是用來招聘新員工、建造工廠或進行其他類型的商業(yè)投資。一句話,因為公司管理層認為,經(jīng)濟疲軟的情況還將延續(xù)。

????《玩具總動員》里巴斯光年那句著名的口頭禪可以借給美聯(lián)儲用一下:飛向無限!

????本周,美聯(lián)儲召開碰頭會。伯南克宣布,將加大近期購買債券的力度。而這一購買行為已被市場稱為“無限量化寬松”(QE Infinity)。所謂的量化寬松,就是一國央行購買本國國債的貨幣政策,它往往會使銀行利率走低。而低利率據(jù)信能刺激經(jīng)濟增長。

????但這么做并沒有取得預期效果。經(jīng)濟確實正在復蘇,但考慮到伯南克三年多前就推出了首輪量化寬松政策,目前的復蘇速度并不像人們預期的那么快。然而企業(yè)又確實在利用低利率政策大舉借貸。因此,美聯(lián)儲的政策似乎部分奏效了。

????但問題在于,企業(yè)正在用這些成本低廉的融資償還舊債,或干脆把錢存了起來,而不是用來招聘新員工、建造工廠或進行其他類型的商業(yè)投資,而這些做法才是低利率刺激經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的常規(guī)表現(xiàn)。

????為什么會出現(xiàn)這種情況呢?花旗集團(Citigroup)的首席全球股權(quán)策略師羅伯特?巴克蘭對此給出的解釋很有意思。簡單說來,伯南克是在將股市變?yōu)閭校蛘咧辽僮屓碎_始覺得是這么回事。

????伯南克推出量化寬松政策所希望的效果之一是,推動那些平時只買債券及其他風險較小的資產(chǎn)的投資者進入風險更高的資本市場,比如股市。而這看起來實現(xiàn)了。標普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)今年上漲了近13%,比實體經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)要好得多。據(jù)信這會讓美國民眾對實體經(jīng)濟更滿意,從而花錢也更大方。

????可惜的是,伯南克稱,讓所有厭惡風險的債券投資者全部涌進股市也有壞處。企業(yè)高管也會變得更厭惡風險,不希望疏遠企業(yè)那些更保守的投資者。這就是為什么這些企業(yè)沒有把錢花在并購或擴張上。

????這種說法頗有意思,不過筆者并不完全贊同。如果情況真是這樣的話,那我們就會發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的首席執(zhí)行官直接向股東派發(fā)現(xiàn)金了??墒聦嵣希髽I(yè)財務報表上的現(xiàn)金卻一直在增加。進一步來說,就像我的同事斯科特?森德羅斯基最近所指出的,盡管有傳言說各公司趕在“財政懸崖”(fiscal cliff,形容布什當政期間所制定的減稅法案、以及現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)奧巴馬危機期間制定的減稅法案,將同時于2013年1月1日集中到期所出現(xiàn)的政府開支被迫巨幅減少的現(xiàn)象——譯注)到來之前爭相向股東派發(fā)紅利,但股票分紅實際卻并未明顯增加。

????絕大多數(shù)首席執(zhí)行官都是極其自信的人,很難讓他們突然變得害怕風險。而一群新股東完全可能把他們認為冒了太大風險的管理團隊掃地出門。不過這么做也需要時間。而實際上收益投資者大概是在去年才開始對股票產(chǎn)生興趣的。所以,就算巴克蘭所描述的場景真的會發(fā)生,可能性也很小。這種描述可能有助于說明現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟狀況,但卻很難很好地解釋,為什么經(jīng)濟衰退結(jié)束已經(jīng)快三年半了,卻只能提供146,000個工作崗位。

????我想,公司不愿意花錢的理由可能很明顯——管理層認為經(jīng)濟將會繼續(xù)疲軟下去。這就使得人們更難把疲弱的經(jīng)濟歸咎于伯南克和他的寬松貨幣政策了。這么表述不如巴克蘭的說法有意思,但卻絲毫不影響它的正確性。

????譯者:清遠

????The Federal Reserve may soon steal a catch phrase from Buzz Lightyear: To infinity and beyond.

????The Federal Reserve is meeting this week, and it looks likely that Bernanke & Co. will announce that it will boost its latest bond buying effort, which has been dubbed QE Infinity. So called quantitative easing, which is what happens when a central bank buys its own country's debt, is supposed to drive down interest rates. And low interest rates are supposed to stimulate the economy.

????But it hasn't quite worked out that way. The economy is indeed improving, but not nearly as fast as one might have expected given that Bernanke kicked off the first round of quantitative easing more than three years ago. Companies are indeed borrowing, taking advantage of the lower rates. So that part of the Fed's plan seems to be working.

????The problem is that companies appear to be using that cheap money to pay off old debts, or just hoarding it, instead of spending it on new hires, building factories or other types of business investments, which is normally the way low-interest rates boost the economy.

????The question is, why? Robert Buckland, the chief global equity strategist at Citigroup (C), has an interesting answer. In short, Bernanke is turning the stock market into the bond market, or at least it may be starting to feel that way.

????One of Bernanke's hopes from quantitative easing is to push investors who normally would buy bonds and other less-risky assets into riskier assets, namely stocks. And that appears to be happening. The S&P 500, which is up nearly 13% this year, is performing much better than the actual economy. That's supposed to make us all feel better about the actual economy, and spend more money.

????Unfortunately, Buckland says that pushing all those risk-averse bond investors into the stock market has a downside, too. Corporate executives get more risk-averse, too, not wanting to alienate their new more conservative investors. That's why they haven't been spending money on acquisitions or expansions.

????It's an interesting argument, but I don't fully agree with it. If this was the case, you would see more CEOs returning cash to their shareholders. Instead, the amount of cash on corporate balance sheets has continued to grow. What's more, as my colleague Scott Cendrowski recently pointed out, despite talk of companies rushing to do shareholder payouts ahead of the fiscal cliff, dividends are not up that much.

????Most CEOs are pretty confident people, and it would be hard to suddenly make them overwhelmingly afraid of risk. A new group of shareholders could throw out corporate management teams that they thought were taking on too much risk. But that would take time. And stocks have only truly become interesting to income investors within the last year or so. So if what Buckland describes is happening, it's probably only happening at the margin, which might matter, but isn't a great explanation why the economy is only producing 146,000 jobs, nearly three and a half years after the recession ended.

????I think the reason companies aren't spending money is probably the obvious one - because executives think the economy will continue to be weak. That makes it harder to pin the weak recovery on Bernanke and his loose money policies. And it's less interesting than Buckland's theory, but that doesn't mean it's incorrect.

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