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新興市場(chǎng)教父:中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)崩盤(pán)

新興市場(chǎng)教父:中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)崩盤(pán)

Scott Cendrowski 2012-10-18
新興市場(chǎng)教父、華爾街投資傳奇人物弗蘭克林-鄧普頓認(rèn)為,中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)盡管在放緩,但相比西方來(lái)說(shuō)依然非常不錯(cuò)。即便是最悲觀(guān)的預(yù)計(jì),中國(guó)的預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)也有望達(dá)到5%,比美國(guó)或歐洲當(dāng)前的增速高出5倍。同時(shí),隨著資金進(jìn)一步流入市場(chǎng),中國(guó)的股市也會(huì)出現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)。

你對(duì)歐元區(qū)的前景相對(duì)樂(lè)觀(guān)。為什么?

????首先,我認(rèn)為很多人太沒(méi)耐心。他們沒(méi)有意識(shí)到歐洲人做事可能總是比世界上其他地方慢很多。我認(rèn)為,終有一天,他們將找出解決方法。而且,如果回頭看看,所有那些聳人聽(tīng)聞的警告所講的那些可怕事情最終并沒(méi)有在歐洲發(fā)生。我們?nèi)詫⒌却ED退出歐元區(qū),但這一幕至今還沒(méi)有發(fā)生。

那么,您購(gòu)買(mǎi)歐洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家的股票嗎?

????我們專(zhuān)注于那些至少有50%利潤(rùn)來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)的公司。因此,我們傾向于進(jìn)入羅馬尼亞、波蘭和匈牙利。我們一直在購(gòu)買(mǎi)銀行股。奧地利銀行Raiffeisen Bank就是一個(gè)很好的例子。它在整個(gè)東歐擁有龐大的網(wǎng)絡(luò),特別是在俄羅斯,它是最大的外資銀行之一。該股承壓是因?yàn)橥顿Y者對(duì)歐洲的整體看法所致。

為什么不購(gòu)買(mǎi)一些從新興市場(chǎng)獲得大部分利潤(rùn)的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家公司?

????這種間接的方式不能帶來(lái)完全的投資敞口??赡芙o你50%,然后你會(huì)被剩下的一半業(yè)務(wù)所拖累,因?yàn)檫@部分業(yè)務(wù)增長(zhǎng)緩慢或遲緩。但也有機(jī)會(huì),比方說(shuō)像雅芳(Avon Products)這樣的公司。該公司出了一些問(wèn)題。股價(jià)大跌。但它有60%以上的利潤(rùn)來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng),而且還在增長(zhǎng)。因此,這是一只我們可以買(mǎi)入的股票,可以用一種廉價(jià)的方式進(jìn)入一些市場(chǎng)。大型跨國(guó)公司在這些市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)收購(gòu)了富有吸引力的本土消費(fèi)品公司。

覆蓋廣泛的MSCI新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)目前的股息收益率接近3%。新興市場(chǎng)是收益投資者的樂(lè)園嗎?

????投資者一直要求從新興市場(chǎng)公司身上獲得更高的回報(bào),因?yàn)樗鼈兊母兄L(fēng)險(xiǎn)更高。這里需要強(qiáng)調(diào)的是“感知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”。股息問(wèn)題的另一個(gè)原因是,這些國(guó)家有很多公司都是由國(guó)家控制,而政府要求獲得派息。它們想要回報(bào)。因此,中國(guó)公司(比如中國(guó)石油)的投資者們就享有不錯(cuò)的派息?;蛘咴诎臀鳎阋矔?huì)看到巴西石油公司(Petrobras)支付相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)的派息。我們持有這兩家公司的股票。

第三輪量化寬松政策(QE3)對(duì)于你投資的新興市場(chǎng)意味著什么?

????總的來(lái)說(shuō)是件好事,因?yàn)樗蛉蝮w系注入了更多流動(dòng)性,而這些流動(dòng)性需要找個(gè)家。我們一直有些意外,比方說(shuō),我們的前沿市場(chǎng)基金(Frontier Markets Fund)在兩年前推出后已經(jīng)吸引了12億美元的資金。資金流的大量增長(zhǎng)給我們帶來(lái)了收益。

????譯者:早稻米

You are relatively bullish on the prospects for the eurozone. Why?

????First of all, I think a lot of people have been too impatient. They don't realize the European psyche tends to take things much slower than maybe other parts of the world. I think at the end of the day they are going to come to a solution. And if you look back, the dire warnings of all these terrible things that were going to happen in Europe haven't happened. We're still waiting for Greece to exit, and it hasn't happened.

So are you buying stocks in developing countries within Europe?

????We have to concentrate only on those companies that have at least 50% of their assets' earnings in emerging markets. So we would tend to be in places like Romania, Poland, and Hungary. We've been buying banks. Raiffeisen Bank in Austria is a good example. It has a tremendous network throughout Eastern Europe, and, particularly in Russia, it's one of the largest foreign banks. The stock is depressed because of the general attitude toward Europe.

Why not buy a developed-market company that gets a large portion of its earnings from emerging markets?

????The indirect way unfortunately doesn't give you the full exposure. It gives you maybe 50%, and then you're stuck with the other half, which is slow-growing or slower-growing. But there are opportunities, such as a company like Avon Products (AVP). It's had problems. The stock is way down. But over 60% of its earnings are in emerging markets and growing. So that's a company that we buy because it's a way to get in cheaply to markets where large multinationals have already acquired the juicy local consumer companies.

The broad MSCI Emerging Markets index now has a dividend yield of almost 3%. Are emerging markets a good play for income investors?

????Investors have been demanding better returns from emerging-market companies because of their higher perceived risk. Underline the words "perceived risk." The other reason for the dividends is that a lot of the companies in these countries are state-controlled, and the governments demand dividends. They want returns. So investors in Chinese companies -- for example, PetroChina (PTR) -- see nice dividends coming their way. Or in Brazil you will see Petrobras (PBR) paying pretty healthy dividends. We own both of those stocks.

What does QE3 mean for the emerging markets where you invest?

????Generally speaking, it's very good because it pours more liquidity into the system globally, and that liquidity needs a home. We have been quite surprised, for instance, that our Frontier Markets Fund (TFMAX) has attracted $1.2 billion since it was introduced two years ago. We get the benefit of a tremendous boost in flows.

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