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蘋果能不能攻下中國(guó)

蘋果能不能攻下中國(guó)

Bill Powell 2012-10-15
如果貴公司是全球最大的公司——市值近6,000億美元,那么要再做大確實(shí)是個(gè)重大挑戰(zhàn)。但如果蘋果公司能設(shè)法吸引全球人口最多的國(guó)家的用戶,它的發(fā)展將不可限量。

????作為蘋果公司(Apple)內(nèi)斂而言辭溫和的首席執(zhí)行官,蒂姆?庫克總是傾向于為中國(guó)市場(chǎng)及蘋果公司在其中的地位大唱贊歌。

????去年,一位分析師問他,中國(guó)是否會(huì)取代美國(guó)、成為蘋果最大的市場(chǎng),庫克幾乎是不假思索地冒出一句:“這個(gè)市場(chǎng)能發(fā)展到哪一步呢?”,這句回應(yīng)指的是中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展前景。“說真的,我這一生還從未見過哪個(gè)國(guó)家有這么多人正在成為中產(chǎn)階級(jí),又有這么多人想買蘋果產(chǎn)品的。”他并未直接回答這位分析師的問題,但是用了一句老話作為總結(jié):“前途無量?!?/p>

????可能你認(rèn)為自己早就已經(jīng)了解蘋果在中國(guó)的故事了,了解了中國(guó)男男女女的工人們?cè)谔O果的合作伙伴富士康公司(Foxconn)苛刻的工作環(huán)境下辛苦勞作,生產(chǎn)著iPod和iPhone。但是蘋果還在以另外一種方式,不動(dòng)聲色地挺進(jìn)中國(guó)市場(chǎng)。沒錯(cuò),不動(dòng)聲色。。蘋果只要在智能手機(jī)和個(gè)人電腦這些核心產(chǎn)品上維持市場(chǎng)份額增長(zhǎng),就能擁有能夠釋放數(shù)十億美元額外營(yíng)業(yè)收入的潛力。如果你認(rèn)為,作為全球價(jià)值最高的公司,市值高達(dá)6,000億美元的蘋果公司已發(fā)展到頭的話,我們懇請(qǐng)你將視線轉(zhuǎn)向東方。

????即使中國(guó)正在經(jīng)歷比預(yù)期更嚴(yán)峻的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩,它仍在繼續(xù)培育成千上萬對(duì)蘋果產(chǎn)品趨之若鶩的消費(fèi)者。今年上半年度,蘋果在大中國(guó)區(qū)的銷售額達(dá)到124億美元。而分析師相信,2012年蘋果在中國(guó)的銷售額能達(dá)到250億美元,甚至更高。而去年這一數(shù)字是133億美元,五年前更是幾乎從零開始。庫克稱,2007年——也即iPhone風(fēng)靡世界的前一年——蘋果在中國(guó)的營(yíng)業(yè)收入是“幾億美元”。直到2008年,蘋果才在北京開設(shè)了首家專賣店,一座現(xiàn)代化的玻璃和金屬結(jié)構(gòu)建筑。此時(shí)距離它在美國(guó)推出零售戰(zhàn)略已整整過去了七年之久。

????即便考慮蘋果從中國(guó)市場(chǎng)獲得的全部收入,中國(guó)也只占其總收入的一小部分。蘋果2011年的1,080億美元收入中,只有12%來自中國(guó)市場(chǎng)(相比之下,美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的銷售額高達(dá)380億美元)。將來中國(guó)會(huì)成為蘋果的第一大市場(chǎng)嗎?如何做到呢?庫克能采取多種舉措來強(qiáng)化蘋果在中國(guó)的市場(chǎng)地位:他可以為中國(guó)度身定做產(chǎn)品,或者擴(kuò)大蘋果專賣店的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。迄今為止,蘋果在中國(guó)大陸只有5家專賣店。未來,他還可以與中國(guó)移動(dòng)(China Mobile)達(dá)成合作,拓展新方向。中移動(dòng)是全球最大的無線運(yùn)營(yíng)商,用戶高達(dá)6.55億人【蘋果已和中國(guó)聯(lián)通(China Unicom)及中國(guó)電信(Telecom)建立了合作】。不只是備受期待的蘋果電視或新版iPad或新的熱捧應(yīng)用,中國(guó)似乎同樣是蘋果的下一個(gè)重大機(jī)遇。只有一個(gè)不那么小的問題:中國(guó)本身。

????可能你已經(jīng)看過三星公司(Samsung)的 Galaxy S III智能手機(jī)在美國(guó)的電視廣告了:片中嘲笑了排長(zhǎng)隊(duì)買蘋果產(chǎn)品的用戶,對(duì)自己略略超過iPhone的升級(jí)配置洋洋自得,自賣自夸。比起這兩大手機(jī)廠商在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)上的激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng),這已經(jīng)算是相當(dāng)有風(fēng)度了。三星在中國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)上牢牢占據(jù)了18%的份額,而蘋果是12%。三星已表示,將增加本已十分龐大的、以中國(guó)為中心的市場(chǎng)營(yíng)銷和廣告預(yù)算,以在這個(gè)市場(chǎng)、尤其是智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)上打造明顯的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力,因此也可能會(huì)迫使蘋果采取同樣的策略。目前,采用谷歌Android操作系統(tǒng)的Galaxy S III在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)超乎預(yù)期。三星中國(guó)區(qū)一位高管表示:“我們希望在中國(guó)市場(chǎng)保持比蘋果更大的份額,也相信自己能做到?!?/p>

????Tim Cook, Apple's reserved and soft-spoken CEO, has a tendency to wax euphoric about the China market and his company's place in it.

????When asked last year by an analyst whether China could replace the U.S. as Apple's biggest market, Cook positively gushed. "How far can it go?" he responded, referring to China's prospects. "Certainly in my lifetime I've never seen a country with as many people rising into the middle class, with people wanting to buy Apple products." He didn't directly answer the analyst's question, but concluded, "The sky is the limit."

????You may think you know the story of Apple (AAPL) in China -- how the men and women who make iPods and iPhones for Apple partner Foxconn labor under punishing conditions. But there's another Apple Goes to China story, and this one is the tale of an underdog -- yes, underdog -- that has the potential to unlock billions and billions of dollars in additional revenue, just by eking out market share gains in core products such as smartphones and PCs. If you think Apple, the most valuable company in the world, with a market cap of nearly $600 billion, has nowhere to go but down, we humbly suggest you turn your gaze to the East.

????Even as China experiences a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown, it continues to mint millions of consumers who covet Apple's products. In its fiscal first half of the year, Apple has reported $12.4 billion in sales from greater China, and analysts believe Apple could garner $25 billion or more in China sales in calendar 2012. And that's up from $13.3 billion last fiscal year, and almost nothing five years ago. In 2007 -- the year before the iPhone became available internationally -- Apple's annual revenue from China was "a few hundred millions of dollars," Cook has said. The company didn't open its first store in China, a modern glass-and-metal structure in Beijing, until 2008, a full seven years after launching its retail strategy in the U.S.

????Now consider that for all Apple's gains in China, the country remains a relatively small contributor to the device maker's revenue mix. Of its $108 billion in 2011 revenue, only 12% came from China. (In contrast, sales in the Americas topped $38 billion.) Could China someday become Apple's No. 1 market, and how? There are many things Cook could do to bolster his company's position: He could customize products for China or expand Apple's retail presence. To date there are only five Apple stores in mainland China. And he could really move the needle by striking a deal with China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest wireless operator, with 655 million users on its network. (Apple already has deals with China Unicom (CHU) and China Telecom (CHA).) It would seem China -- more than a much-anticipated Apple television or another version of the iPad or the next hot app -- represents Apple's next big opportunity. There's just one not-so-small problem: China itself.

????Perhaps you've seen the American television commercials for Samsung's Galaxy S III smartphones: the ones that mock Apple customers for waiting in long lines and boasting about minute upgrades to the iPhone. That's sportsmanlike behavior compared with the war that's taking place between the two gadgetmakers in China, where Korea's Samsung is firmly entrenched with 18% of the smartphone market, vs. Apple's 12%. Samsung has indicated it will amp up an already large China-centric marketing and advertising budget, trying to build on what it sees as obvious momentum in the market, particularly in smartphones, arguably putting pressure on Apple to do the same. The Galaxy S III, which uses Google's (GOOG) Android operating system, is outperforming expectations in China. Says a senior China-based executive at Samsung: "We want to remain bigger than Apple in China, and we believe we will."

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