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防務(wù)超級大合并遭遇政治阻力

防務(wù)超級大合并遭遇政治阻力

Cyrus Sanati 2012-09-17
從經(jīng)濟(jì)和財務(wù)方面來看,歐洲宇航巨頭EADS和英國防務(wù)公司BAE系統(tǒng)的合并無懈可擊。但在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域,唱主角的永遠(yuǎn)是政治。這個超級大合并最終能否如愿以償將取決于各利益相關(guān)方激烈博弈的最終結(jié)果。

????航空巨頭歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)(EADS)對英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司(BAE Systems)的大膽收購其實只有一個目的:從五角大樓(Pentagon)拉到生意。做為噴氣飛機(jī)制造商空客(Airbus)的母公司,歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)在過去將近10年中一直努力加入龐大的美國軍工復(fù)合體,但卻始終徒勞無功,現(xiàn)在公司選擇通過收購來分得一杯羹。如果成功并購英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司,歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)將自動成為美國國防部的最大軍事承包商之一,它的直接競爭對手包括航空巨頭洛克希德?馬?。↙ockheed Martin)、諾斯洛普?格魯曼(Northrup Grumman)和其商業(yè)航空領(lǐng)域的頭號大敵波音公司(Boeing)。

????雖然從經(jīng)濟(jì)和財務(wù)方面來看,這次合并無懈可擊,但來自政治和監(jiān)管的巨大阻力無法避免。我敢打賭,代表防務(wù)產(chǎn)業(yè)重鎮(zhèn)的議員們昨晚電話一定被打爆。因為在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域,政治每一次都壓倒經(jīng)濟(jì)考慮,大多數(shù)合同都被和政府關(guān)系密切的本國企業(yè)瓜分。要想完成這筆交易,不但要得到無數(shù)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的批準(zhǔn),還要得到美國防務(wù)承包商及其在政府內(nèi)部的支持者的認(rèn)可。這個任務(wù)非常艱巨。

????昨天,華爾街看起來對歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)和英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司進(jìn)行合并談判的消息毫無準(zhǔn)備。雖然談判隨時可能破裂,但如果交易成功的話,將誕生一個真正具有全球影響力的宇航巨頭。過去一段時間,歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)一直試圖在防務(wù)領(lǐng)域拓展業(yè)務(wù),但收效甚微。對英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司的潛在收購將帶給歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)夢寐以求的防務(wù)業(yè)務(wù),也能平衡公司的收入來源??湛驼嫉焦居?6%,其它1/3來自于防務(wù)及航天相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)。而英國宇航系統(tǒng)公司98%的盈利都來自防務(wù)相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù),合并之后公司的收入將在空客與防務(wù)及航天之間對半開,這就和波音的業(yè)務(wù)比例差不多了。

????但這次合并不僅僅是為了獲得一般的軍方合同,歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)真正想要的是利潤驚人的美國合同。雖然BAE是英國最大的防務(wù)公司,但其收入的41%來自于美國。公司在華盛頓附近設(shè)有大型辦事處,而且美國雇員還超過英國雇員,人數(shù)多達(dá)約3.4萬人。

????歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)過去幾年曾多次投標(biāo)于美國軍方合同,雖然時不時能贏得一些小型采購,但卻很少獲得大單。歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)中,這方面最為成功的是歐洲直升機(jī)公司,該分部在2004年贏得過金額高達(dá)20億美元的合同,為美國陸軍和海岸警衛(wèi)隊制造直升機(jī)。歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)本想一鼓作氣,和波音競爭為美軍建造加油機(jī)的400億美元巨額合同。兩個巨頭之間的競爭白熱化,到了令人生厭的地步。最終歐洲宇航防務(wù)集團(tuán)還是落選,而這場歷時多年的競標(biāo)也讓公司的數(shù)億美元打了水漂。

????The bold attempt by European aeronautics giant EADS to acquire British defense company BAE Systems is all about one thing: Pentagon access. After nearly a decade of trying in vain to tap the vast U.S. military industrial complex on its own, EADS, the parent company of jet-maker Airbus, is now trying to essentially buy its way into the canteen. If it is successful in snapping up BAE, EADS would automatically become one of the largest military contractors to the US Department of Defense, putting it in direct competition for contracts with U.S. aerospace giants Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrup Grumman (NOC), and its commercial aviation archenemy, Boeing (BA).

????But while such a tie-up looks like a no-brainer on the economic and financial front, it is bound to encounter stiff resistance on the political and regulatory front. You can bet that lawmakers that represent districts or states where defense is a major employer received more than their fair share of calls last night on this topic. That's because in the defense world, politics trumps economics every time as contracts are divvied up mostly to national champions with strong government connections. This deal will only go through if it is blessed, not just by the myriad of regulators, but by the U.S. defense contractors and their boosters in government. That seems like a tall order.

????Wall Street seemed truly caught off guard yesterday when the news broke that EADS and BAE were in merger talks. The deal, which is still being negotiated and could collapse at any time, would create an aerospace juggernaut with true global reach. EADS has wanted to grow its defense business for a while now, but has had limited success. The potential acquisition of BAE gives EADS the defense business it always wanted, while also balancing the company's revenue stream. Airbus accounts for 66% of the company's earnings, with the other third coming from defense and space-related businesses. With the inclusion of BAE, where 98% of its earnings derive from defense-related businesses, the revenue mix for the combined company would be 50% Airbus and 50% defense and space, which would be nearly identical to how Boeing is divided.

????But this merger isn't just about gaining military contracts; it's about gaining the right kind of contracts – those wildly lucrative American contracts. While BAE is a British outfit and the largest defense company in the UK, it turns out that around 41% of its revenues come from the U.S. The company maintains a large office outside of Washington and actually employs more people in the U.S. than they do in the UK at around 34,000 employees.

????EADS has bid on a number of U.S. military contracts over the years and while it wins small procurements here and there, it has had limited success in nabbing the big fish. Its Eurocopter division has been the best performer of the EADS family, winning a $2 billion contract in 2004 to build helicopters for the US Army and the Coast Guard. Building on its Eurocopter victory, EADS later challenged Boeing for a $40 billion contract to build refueling tanker aircraft for the US military. The battle between the two giants got very ugly. EADS ultimately lost out to Boeing in a multi-year drama that cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars.

????EADS management must now believe that acquiring BAE is the easiest and most efficient way of securing those big US military contracts. But while the transaction achieves revenue balance and crucial U.S. access, there is concern as to why EADS would want to acquire a pure-play defense company now that governments around the world are cutting back on military spending. The market thought the same thing too, sending shares in EADS down 6% on Wednesday. Was EADS not aware of sequestration or the fiscal cliff? Why try to enter the U.S. market at a time when it could be possible that its military budget could get automatically cut by a whopping 5% to 10% in January of next year?

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