????在這個對PC的未來憂心忡忡的行業(yè)里，聯(lián)想公司（Lenovo）卻不急不躁，十分篤定。

????上周，這家中國的PC廠商又發(fā)布了一份漂亮的季度財報，營收與利潤雙雙大幅增長——甚至在PC銷售下降的市場也是如此。現(xiàn)在，聯(lián)想幾乎快要趕上其最大的競爭對手惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard），登上世界頭號個人電腦廠商的寶座了。而當業(yè)內眾多公司正為疲軟的全球PC市場和平板電腦的崛起煩惱時，聯(lián)想的PC業(yè)績卻保持著高歌猛進的態(tài)勢。聯(lián)想公司總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官楊元慶在接受《財富》雜志（Fortune）專訪時稱：“平板電腦是很出色的創(chuàng)新產品，也是對傳統(tǒng)PC很好的補充。有人說平板電腦將吞噬PC。我不這么認為。”

????那么他的觀點是什么呢？消費者將向高端大屏幕電腦和智能手機轉移，而平板電腦將作為一種重要的細分產品而存在。聯(lián)想甚至為即將到來的計算時代起了個雅號：“PC+”時代。

????已有無數人對日新月異的電腦行業(yè)進行過預測，楊元慶是其中之一。過去三年間，他的公司已證明，聯(lián)想比大多數公司都能更好地預測未來。據市場研究公司IDC的數據，2009年，聯(lián)想在全球市場的份額是9%，經過幾年飛速發(fā)展，今年這一份額已增至15%，幾乎與惠普的15.7%旗鼓相當。聯(lián)想稱，上一季度其PC出貨量增長了24%，而全行業(yè)則下降了2%。

????這些似乎不太現(xiàn)實的大幅增長主要來自于服務水平較低的市場的銷售增長。比如，上一季度聯(lián)想在中國的市場份額達到了創(chuàng)紀錄的35%。而與美國這樣的PC擁有率接近100%的國家相比，中國的PC擁有率只有美國的約五分之一。聯(lián)想一直專注于拓展中國農村和中小城市地區(qū)，這些地方的PC擁有率尤為低下。在全中國它擁有超過3萬家特許經銷店。相比之下，以城市為戰(zhàn)略中心的蘋果公司（Apple）在中國只有6家專賣店。聯(lián)想在中國的銷售網絡堪稱無孔不入，在卡車運輸不方便的地方，聯(lián)想有時候會用自行車運送產品——楊元慶說，有時甚至還會用驢來馱。

????在其他新興市場，聯(lián)想高歌猛進的增長戰(zhàn)略是以犧牲高額利潤為代價的，但換來的是銷售額的猛增。花旗集團（Citigroup）的分析師在一份研究報告中稱，一年前，聯(lián)想只在12個國家實現(xiàn)了兩位數的增長，現(xiàn)在則在35個國家都實現(xiàn)了這一點。楊元慶稱，在其他公司當前面臨需求萎縮的情況下，聯(lián)想卻進入尚未開發(fā)地區(qū)的市場，憑借這個戰(zhàn)略獲得了增長空間。

????楊元慶表示，驅動增長的另一大動力將是聯(lián)想在PC之外的投資項目。聯(lián)想全新的移動技術部門貢獻的收入現(xiàn)在占公司總收入的7.3%，比去年的3.6%增長了不少。去年，聯(lián)想在中國售出了700萬部手機，其中500萬部是智能手機。盡管這是個相對較新的業(yè)務，但其智能手機在中國的市場份額已達10%，僅次于三星公司（Samsung）。這一業(yè)務預計很快就能實現(xiàn)盈利。

????聯(lián)想還在服務器領域大顯身手。本月初，它宣布計劃與信息存儲領先公司EMC合作，為后者的存儲部門開發(fā)服務器。聯(lián)想預計，這一合作將在今后幾年帶來數十億美元的收入。巴克萊銀行（Barclays）分析師在致投資者的一封信中這樣寫道：“（聯(lián)想）已從一家專注于中國和美國企業(yè)電腦領域的PC廠商”轉型為一家多元化的企業(yè)，它的觸角已伸入新興市場、消費者產品、智能手機、平板電腦和服務器領域。

????但也有人擔心，目前正困擾整個行業(yè)的那些麻煩會讓聯(lián)想難以獨善其身。市場研究公司IDC的研究總監(jiān)大衛(wèi)?達伍德稱：“聯(lián)想現(xiàn)在的表現(xiàn)比競爭對手勝出一籌，但他們也面臨和競爭對手一樣的環(huán)境。問題是他們能否持續(xù)交出這樣的成績單。因為未來存在很多的不確定因素。”

????其中之一就是全球PC銷量的滑坡，另一個因素是中國經濟發(fā)展放緩。中國市場占聯(lián)想銷售額的42%。7月份，中國經濟增速開始下滑，出口增長僅為1%，比6月的11%下降了不少。楊元慶稱：“確實存在一些不確定因素。”他表示，其中一個主要原因是政府對房地產泡沫的調控。另一個因素是全球經濟低迷對中國出口造成的影響。

????但楊元慶補充說，他認為這些因素都不會造成持久影響。他說：“長期來看，我對中國經濟和PC市場仍然樂觀。”中國PC的整體出貨量下降了3%，而聯(lián)想則增長了9%。楊元慶表示，成功的部分原因在于聯(lián)想了解這個市場。對美國公司來說，它們不可能用驢和自行車把產品運往偏遠城市，只會花大價錢用聯(lián)邦快遞（FedEx）這樣的快遞公司來完成物流。聯(lián)想還更懂得如何在中國中小城市有策略地投放廣告，而不是像美國公司那樣，依靠盛世長城（Saatchi & Saatchi）這樣的大型廣告公司來在中國市場探路。

????聯(lián)想在中國的優(yōu)勢似乎可以歸結為，它是一家本土企業(yè)，了解本土市場，擁有足以與美國同類產品相抗衡的成熟產品（楊元慶本人也具有這些特點。這位47歲、土生土長的中國人身穿一件領口敞開、樣子時尚的紫色襯衫來到專訪現(xiàn)場。他的下屬對他以姓相稱，或直接管他叫YY，這可是很多中國首席執(zhí)行官無法容忍的做法）。坐擁本土優(yōu)勢的楊元慶歡迎競爭，他甚至可以向競爭對手介紹自己的農村物流和營銷策略。不過他補充說：“就算我告訴他們怎么做，他們也辦不到?！?/p>

????譯者：清遠

????In an industry riddled with angst over the future of the PC, Lenovo is not sweating it.

????Last week the Chinese personal computer maker posted another quarter of big gains in revenue and profit -- even in markets where PC sales fell. Lenovo has now nearly overtaken its largest rival, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), as the largest personal computer manufacturer in the world. And while many in the industry are fretting about the soft global PC market and the rise of the tablet, Lenovo remains bullish on, well, computers. "The tablet is a good innovation, and a good compliment to the traditional PC," said company chairman and CEO Yang Yuanqing in an interview with Fortune. "Some say the tablet will cannibalize the PC. I have a different opinion."

????His view? Consumers will move toward high-end computers and smartphones with a large screen, leaving tablets as an important niche product. The company even has a moniker for the coming age of computing: the PC-plus era.

????Yang's is one of countless predictions about a fast-changing industry. But in the last three years, his company has proved that it can read the tea leaves better than most. Lenovo has skyrocketed from global 9% market share in 2009 to 15% this year, almost even with HP at 15.7% according to research firm IDC. Its PC shipments rose 24% in the last quarter, the company said, compared with a 2% decline in the industry overall.

????Those improbably large gains come largely from increasing sales in underserved markets. For example, last quarter Lenovo reached a record market share of 35% in China, where personal computer ownership rates are about one fifth what they are in the US.. In the US, that number is closer to 100%. The company has focused in particular on rural areas and small cities in China, where PC ownership is lowest. It has more than 30,000 franchise locations in the country. Urban-centric Apple (AAPL), by comparison, has six. Lenovo's reach is so broad in its home country, that where truck distribution isn't convenient, it sometimes moves its product via bicycle -- or even by donkeys Yang says.

????In other emerging markets, the company's aggressive growth strategy has come at the cost of high profit margins, but has resulted in big sales. Market share is now in the double digits in 35 countries, analysts from Citigroup (CIT) wrote in a research note, up from 12 countries a year ago. The strategy of going into untapped areas has left the company with room to grow, says Yang, even as other companies are facing shrinking demand.

????Another growth driver, Yang says, will be the company's investments beyond PCs. The company's new mobile technology division now makes up 7.3% of company revenue, up from 3.6% last year. Lenovo sold 7 million phones in China last year, 5 million of them smartphones. Despite being a relatively new business, its smartphones have snagged 10% market share in China, second only to Samsung. The business is expected to reach profitability soon.

????The company has also made a play in the server businesses, announcing plans earlier this month to partner with EMC (EMC) to develop servers for EMC storage units. It expects the deal could bring in billions in revenue in the next several years. In a note to investors Barclays (BCS) analysts wrote that "[Lenovo] has transformed from a PC company focusing only on China and the US enterprise PC segment," into a diversified company with a hand in emerging markets, consumer products, smartphones, tablets and servers.

????But some worry that Lenovo is not immune to the woes ailing the industry. "They're doing much better than their competitors, but they're also facing the same environment as their competitors," said IDC research director David Daoud. "The question is could they continue to deliver the types of results that they've delivered. There are a lot of wildcards out there."

????One of those wildcards is the global slump in PC sales, another is a slowdown in the Chinese economy. China accounts for 42% of Lenovo's sales. The country's growth appeared to stutter in July, with exports increasing just 1%, down from an 11% increase the month before. "There is definitely some uncertainty here," Yang says. One of the primary reasons, he says, is government control over the real estate bubble. The other is that the global economic slowdown could impact Chinese exports.

????But Yang added that he thinks neither of those factors would have a lasting impact. "Long-term, I'm still optimistic on the Chinese economy, and the PC market," he said.

????In China, PC shipments declined 3%,while Lenovo's PC shipments in the country grew 9%. Part of that success, Yang says, is knowing the market. Instead of using donkeys and bicycles to move product to cities off the beaten path, American companies might try to hire a carrier such as FedEx (FDX) to make deliveries at a greater cost. Lenovo also knows how to strategically advertise in smaller Chinese cities, rather than having to rely on an ad company such as Saatchi & Saatchi to navigate the landscape for them, as an American company might.

????Indeed, Lenovo's advantage in China seems to be that it is a local player that understands its home market but boasts a product that's sophisticated enough to go toe-to-toe with its U.S. counterparts. (The same could be said for Yang, a 47-year-old Chinese native who arrived at the interview slightly breathless in an open-collared, stylish purple shirt. His staffers call him by his first name, or Y.Y., a practice many Chinese CEOs would not tolerate.) As a result of its local edge, Yang welcomes the competition and says he'll even explain his playbook on logistics and marketing to rural customers. But he adds: "Even if I told them how to do that, they couldn't."