????創(chuàng)新乏力，經(jīng)濟疲軟，平板電腦競爭。無論找出什么樣的理由，PC業(yè)確實遇到了麻煩。第二季度PC銷量下滑，而且展望2012年下半年，情況也并不樂觀。即便微軟（Microsoft）Windows 8即將上市，也不大可能將停滯不前的PC產(chǎn)業(yè)再次帶回正軌。

????PC到底怎么了？

????市場調(diào)研機構(gòu)IDC發(fā)布報告指出，上季度的PC機出貨量為8,670萬臺，同比下滑了0.1%。這一數(shù)據(jù)遠遠低于IDC此前預(yù)計的同比增長2.1%。無獨有偶，調(diào)研機構(gòu)高德納公司（Gartner）也報告稱PC銷量下滑，出貨量約為8,750萬臺。調(diào)研機構(gòu)IHS iSuppli計算機平臺部高級首席分析師克雷格?斯泰斯稱：“毫無疑問，整個行業(yè)都處于衰退期。根本原因仍然是全球經(jīng)濟形勢?！?/p>

????拖累PC銷量的另外一個因素是增長迅猛、飛速發(fā)展的平板電腦和智能手機。如果將平板電腦看作PC，那么蘋果（Apple）將取代惠普（Hewlett-Packard），成為銷量第一的PC制造商。位于英國的調(diào)研公司Canalys成，如果將7英寸及以上平板電腦計入PC，那么蘋果將成為全球最大的PC廠商。2012年第二季度，蘋果售出了1,700萬iPad和400萬臺Mac。

????話說回來，無論哪家公司是第一大PC制造商，今年下半年對傳統(tǒng)PC的需求放緩已是板上釘釘之事。位于加州圣巴巴拉市的英特爾（Intel）下調(diào)了對2012年的預(yù)期，其競爭對手超威半導(dǎo)體（Advanced Micro Devices Inc.）最近發(fā)布的第二季度財報則顯示，公司營收下滑了11%。IDC客戶端及顯示器部副總裁鮑勃?奧唐納說：“目前的困難是，美國、西歐和其它發(fā)達國家的PC需求在放緩。還有哪些人需要PC而沒有PC呢？”因此，市場目前關(guān)注的是PC替代產(chǎn)品。與此同時，疲軟的世界經(jīng)濟讓消費者相信，沒有必要升級PC。

????那么，是否存在亮點呢？奧唐納的回答是：發(fā)展中國家的市場——但它仍取決于基礎(chǔ)經(jīng)濟實力?！爸袊?jīng)濟正在放緩，而印度的發(fā)展速度也比人們希望的要慢，”奧唐奈說?！鞍臀鞅憩F(xiàn)不錯，而且其出貨量將超越美國，但這不足以支撐整個行業(yè)?！?/p>

????同時，大受追捧并在今年一月份的消費電子展（Consumer Electronics Show）中受到熱議的超極本（Ultrabooks）并未受到消費者的青睞。所謂的超極本是輕薄、且功能強大的筆記本電腦，是旨在與蘋果熱銷的MacBook Air競爭的Windows個人電腦。但高高在上的價格可能抑制了超極端=本的發(fā)展勢頭。奧唐納說：“超極本的售價不便宜，既不是999美元，也不是899美元?！?/p>

????微軟（Microsoft）將在10月份推出的Windows 8也于事無補，特別是它可能只會進一步推高新電腦的成本。“由于Windows 8即將推出，人們將推遲購買電腦，問題在于這種情況可能延續(xù)到10月份之后?！弊稍児靖ダ姿固匮芯抗荆‵orrester Research）副總裁兼首席分析師安德魯?巴特爾斯說：“過去的經(jīng)驗表明，企業(yè)客戶、乃至消費者都可能采取觀望態(tài)度?！?/p>

????其中一個因素將是消費者能否輕松升級。最近一次從Windows Vista到Windows 7的升級被認為非常順利，但其中并不存在巨大的技術(shù)飛躍。而過去比較復(fù)雜的升級、尤其是升級到Windows 95、Windows XP當然還有臭名昭著的Windows Vista，使得很多企業(yè)和個人用戶干脆換了臺新電腦。斯蒂斯說：“我們認為Windows 8在10月份發(fā)布時確實有可能推高PC銷量。而在此之前，Windows 8只是在制造泡沫效應(yīng)?！边@意味著在八月和整個九月，PC銷量都將放緩。

????與此同時，隨著蘋果繼續(xù)稱霸平板電腦領(lǐng)域，蘋果臺式機和筆記本電腦都將有所增長。巴特爾斯表示：“迄今為止，微軟英特爾廠商（Wintel）都沒有開發(fā)出真正具有競爭力的產(chǎn)品。

????譯者：項航

????Blame it on lack of innovation. Blame it on the economy. Blame it on the tablet. Whatever one blames it on, PCs are not doing well. Sales of computers were down in the second quarter and the outlook for the rest of 2012 is gloomy. Even the upcoming release of Microsoft Windows 8 is unlikely to shift the wheezing PC business back into gear.

????What's going on?

????Market research firm IDC reported that PC shipments totaled 86.7 million units last quarter, down 0.1% from the year earlier period. This was far below IDC's projection of 2.1% growth. Gartner also reported the decline in sales, counting approximately 87.5 million units. "It certainly seems that the industry as a whole is in a slump," said Craig Stice, senior principal analyst for computer platforms at IHS iSuppli. "Bottom line is still the economic conditions worldwide."

????Another factor in the slowdown of PC sales is the continued growth of do-more tablet computers and smartphones. Counting tablets as PCs actually causes Apple (AAPL) to dethrone Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) from the top PC vendor spot. Boosted by strong demand for its iPad tablet, Apple was the top PC seller worldwide according to the UK-based Canalys, which counts tablets 7-inches or larger as PCs. During the second quarter of 2012 Apple sold 17 million iPads and 4 million Macs.

????Still, regardless of which company is considered the top vendor, the fact is that the outlook for the rest of the year is likely slowing demand for traditional PCs. Santa Clara, California-based Intel (INTC) cut its 2012 forecast, while rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) recently disclosed that its second quarter revenue slumped 11%. "The challenge now is that PC demand in the United States, Western Europe and the developed world is slowing down," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president of clients and displays for IDC. "Who out there now needs a PC and doesn't have one?" As a result the market is now focused on replacements, he added. A shaky economy, meanwhile, is convincing consumers they don't really need an upgrade.

????Are there any bright spots? O'Donnell's answer: developing markets -- but they still depends on underlying economic strength. "China's economy is slowing down, and India is slower than people had hoped for," he said. "Brazil is doing well, and will surpass the United States in shipments but that isn't enough to keep the industry in good shape."

????Meanwhile, highly touted Ultrabooks which received a lot of buzz at this year's Consumer Electronics Show in January haven't caught on with consumers. So-called Ultrabooks, thin and light yet powerful notebooks, were intended as the Windows PC industry's answer to Apple's hot-selling MacBook Air. But high prices may have slowed their momentum. "Ultrabooks didn't sell at $999 and $899," said O'Donnell.

????The October arrival of Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows 8 isn't likely to help matters, especially as it will likely only add to the cost of a new computer. "People will hold off as Windows 8 is around the corner, but that could continue beyond October," said Andrew Bartels, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research. "Past experience shows that corporate buyers and even consumers could take a wait and see attitude."

????One factor will be whether consumers can upgrade easily. While the most recent update from Windows Vista to Windows 7 was considered fairly smooth, it didn't constitute a great technical leap. Past complex upgrades, notably to Windows 95, Windows XP and of course the notorious Windows Vista had many corporate and consumer users simply opting for a new computer. "We think Windows 8 does have the potential to drive sales when it is released in October," said Stice. "Until then Windows 8 is creating that bubble effect leading up it." That means slow sales throughout the rest of August and September.

????In the meantime, as Apple continues to dominate in the tablet space it could see some growth with its desktops and notebooks. Says Bartels, "So far Wintel vendors haven't come up with an alternative."