????如今人們似乎都在談?wù)撘苿?dòng)市場(chǎng)。可供消費(fèi)者選擇的智能手機(jī)和平板電腦日益增多。然而，對(duì)制造商們而言，這并不是件輕松的事。

????有蘋(píng)果（Apple）這樣的贏家，但也有諾基亞（Nokia）這樣的輸家。有谷歌（Google）Android這樣蓬勃發(fā)展的操作系統(tǒng)，但也有塞班（Symbian）這樣窮途末路的系統(tǒng)。換言之，幾家歡喜幾家愁。這一點(diǎn)在智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)得格外明顯。

????讓我們回到5月，調(diào)研公司Asymco發(fā)布了一份報(bào)告，總結(jié)了智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)從2007年第二季度到目前為止的盈利情況。Asymco的發(fā)現(xiàn)令人震驚，去年第四季度，整個(gè)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)為144億美元，蘋(píng)果一家就占據(jù)了其中的73%，其主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手三星（Samsung）則占據(jù)了26%。剩下1%——僅僅只有1.44億美元被宏達(dá)電（HTC）拿走。

????2007年的情況則大不一樣：諾基亞占據(jù)了一半多的運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)。黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商RIM、LG和索尼愛(ài)立信（Sony Ericsson）的表現(xiàn)也相當(dāng)不錯(cuò)。不過(guò)，這些公司如今都已經(jīng)深陷泥潭。

????諾基亞的衰落尤為讓人擔(dān)憂。2008年，這家手機(jī)巨頭取得了507億美元營(yíng)收，利潤(rùn)40億美元。去年，諾基亞營(yíng)收降至387億美元，虧損12億美元。今年第二季度，諾基亞又虧損了10億美元。與此同時(shí)，蘋(píng)果仍在快速增長(zhǎng)。在截至7月30日的公司第三財(cái)季，蘋(píng)果共售出了2,600萬(wàn)部iPhone。iPhone及其相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)取得了162億美元營(yíng)收，占據(jù)了蘋(píng)果季度總營(yíng)收350億美元的將近一半。

????不過(guò)，蘋(píng)果的表現(xiàn)不僅僅在智能手機(jī)。

????調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)IDC的數(shù)據(jù)指出，去年，蘋(píng)果iPad的出貨量超過(guò)4,000萬(wàn)部，占據(jù)了平板電腦市場(chǎng)58%的份額。所有幾十種Android設(shè)備加起來(lái)也只占據(jù)了38.7%的市場(chǎng)份額，出貨量約為2,700萬(wàn)部。讓我們用數(shù)字說(shuō)話：蘋(píng)果宣布在截至7月30日的第三財(cái)季共計(jì)售出1,700萬(wàn)iPad。

????去年末，當(dāng)亞馬遜（Amazon）Kindle Fire大賣(mài)特賣(mài)時(shí)，人們相信它能真正威脅到iPad。不過(guò)，投資公司Cowen的分析師凱文?柯普曼指出，亞馬遜Kindle Fire在今年的出貨量或?qū)H有1,200萬(wàn)部。同時(shí)，我們不要忘了其它數(shù)不勝數(shù)的平板電腦，其中就包括三星自家的蓋世（Galaxy）平板系列，它們對(duì)iPad的進(jìn)攻最終都以失敗而告終。

????移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域由盛及衰的分水嶺之說(shuō)甚至可以延伸到移動(dòng)廣告領(lǐng)域。谷歌AdMob雖然進(jìn)展緩慢，但其一統(tǒng)移動(dòng)廣告市場(chǎng)的趨勢(shì)愈加明顯。去年12月，IDC報(bào)告指出，谷歌在移動(dòng)廣告市場(chǎng)份額從2010年19%上升到了2011年的24%。蘋(píng)果的iAd被看作是AdMob最有可能的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，但是依然眼睜睜地看著自己的市場(chǎng)份額從2010年的19%下降到了2011年的15%。

????蘋(píng)果的廣告平臺(tái)現(xiàn)在并沒(méi)有完全失敗。不過(guò)，在移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域，至少?gòu)倪^(guò)去幾年看，任何重大滑坡都會(huì)給該公司帶來(lái)麻煩。

????移動(dòng)領(lǐng)域的新常態(tài)似乎也在滲入移動(dòng)游戲市場(chǎng)。Rovio制作了世界最流行的手機(jī)游戲《憤怒的小鳥(niǎo)》。該公司在5月份時(shí)公布了上個(gè)財(cái)年財(cái)報(bào)，營(yíng)收1.063億美元，利潤(rùn)6,760萬(wàn)美元。雖然游戲已成為移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)非常流行的元素，而且許多開(kāi)發(fā)者也已在這個(gè)領(lǐng)域賺到不少真金白銀，但Rovio顯然仍牢牢占據(jù)移動(dòng)游戲頭把交椅。每當(dāng)它發(fā)布一款游戲更新或一款新的小鳥(niǎo)游戲后，用戶們都會(huì)蜂擁而至。此情此景唯Rovio一家，其它手機(jī)游戲開(kāi)發(fā)者只能在夢(mèng)里憧憬一番。

????曾經(jīng)，僅有幾家公司在移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而且其中很多公司都獲得了回報(bào)。然而現(xiàn)在，這個(gè)市場(chǎng)中的公司數(shù)量多了不少，但卻只有少數(shù)幾家公司成功。因此，一些公司可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生疑問(wèn)：為什么要往比以往任何時(shí)候都更有可能失敗的產(chǎn)品上砸錢(qián)。這確實(shí)是個(gè)好問(wèn)題。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????The mobile market seems to be all anybody ever talks about these days. Consumers have more smartphones and tablets to choose from every day. For the vendors, however, it's not all fun and games.

????For every Apple (AAPL), there is a Nokia (NOK). And for every Google (GOOG) Android, there's a Symbian. There are, in other words, haves and have-nots. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the smartphone market.

????Back in May, research firm Asymco released astudy it conducted on smartphone market operating profits spanning the second quarter of 2007 to now. And what the company found was shocking: Out of the $14.4 billion in operating profits generated in the fourth quarter, Apple made 73% of them. Samsung, its chief competitor, nabbed 26%. The remaining 1% -- a mere $144 million -- went to HTC.

????It was a much different story back in 2007, when Nokia owned well over half of the smartphone market's operating profits. RIM (RIMM), LG, and Sony Ericsson (SNE) were also doing well. Now, they've lost it all.

????Nokia's decline is especially troubling. In 2008, the handset vendor generated $4 billion in profits on $50.7 billion in revenue. Last year, it took a $1.2 billion loss on $38.7 billion in revenue. During the second quarter alone, the company lost another $1 billion. Apple, meanwhile, continues to climb. During its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, Apple sold 26 million iPhones. The iPhone and its related services generated $16.2 billion during the period, accounting for nearly half of Apple's $35 billion of revenue.

????But it's not just smartphones.

????Last year, Apple shipped over 40 million iPads, earning the company 58% market share in the tablet space, according to data from research firm IDC. All of the Android-based devices -- dozens, in total -- were only able to secure 38.7% of the market on about 27 million shipped units. To put that figure into perspective, Apple announced recently that it sold 17 million iPads during the three-month period ended June 30.

????Late last year, when the Amazon (AMZN) Kindle Fire was selling well, it was believed that it could be a credible iPad threat. But according to Cowen analyst Kevin Kopelman, Amazon will sell only 12 million Kindle Fire units this year. And let's not forget about the countless other tablets, including Samsung's own Galaxy Tab line, that have tried to take down Apple's iPad to no avail.

????The great divide between the haves and have-nots in the mobile space can even extend to mobile advertising, where Google's AdMob is slowly but surely starting to pull away. In December, research firm IDC reported that Google's mobile ad market share rose from 19% in 2010 to 24% in 2011. Apple's iAd, which was largely viewed as a possible contender to AdMob, watched its share fall from 19% in 2010 to 15% last year.

????Apple's platform isn't down and out just yet. But any notable decline in the mobile space, at least in the last few years, has spelled trouble for the company on the wrong side of things.

????The new normal in the mobile space also appears to be infiltrating the mobile-gaming market. Rovio, maker of the world's most popular mobile game, Angry Birds, reported in May that it generated $106.3 million in revenue and a profit of $67.6 million on its franchise last year. Although games have proven extremely popular in the mobile market and other developers have made some cash with their creations, Rovio has emerged as the dominant force in mobile gaming. Whenever it launches an update to its games or a new title, consumers take notice. That's unique and only a dream for most mobile developers.

????There was a time when a few companies were competing in the mobile market, and many of them were reaping the rewards. Now, many more firms are in that space, and just a handful are succeeding. It might be enough to make some companies question why they should spend cash on products that have a higher likelihood than ever of failing. A good question indeed.