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奧巴馬競選策略調(diào)整不得人心

奧巴馬競選策略調(diào)整不得人心

Don Tapscott 2012-06-18
奧巴馬在上次大選中將社交媒體打造成了強(qiáng)大的政治武器。然而,這次競選連任時(shí),奧巴馬的競選班子卻放棄了這些行之有效的做法,轉(zhuǎn)而投重金于“大數(shù)據(jù)”研究,意圖了解其支持者的行為特點(diǎn)。但這個(gè)新策略可能適得其反。

????然而,奧巴馬當(dāng)選四年之后,改變并未發(fā)生,游戲規(guī)則依舊:你投票,我統(tǒng)治。拉希奇很失望:“很多人認(rèn)為,在他的希望和改變的口號下聚集了巨大的政治支持,他卻沒有好好珍惜?!北热?,奧巴馬本可以利用1,300萬支持者去游說議員,以支持其健保法案。拉希奇認(rèn)為白宮、特別是奧巴馬的首任幕僚長拉姆?伊曼紐爾并不相信“我們”的力量?!八麄兺嘶氐健熳值谝惶栔v壇’(指白宮),他們重拾20世紀(jì)的交流方式。”這種態(tài)度看來已經(jīng)影響了2012年的競選。

????28歲的洛米奇?康斯特說:“這是一場完全不同的競選?!?008年,她和一些音樂以及影視界的大牌明星組織活動,為奧巴馬籌得數(shù)百萬美元?!罢媸枪奈枞诵?,”她回憶道?!爱?dāng)有人相信你有能力做你想做的,你就有力量和潛能去實(shí)現(xiàn)更多的夢想。我還能鼓舞其他人?!倍@一次“就是傳統(tǒng)的自上而下的有組織競選。”現(xiàn)在單單批準(zhǔn)活動計(jì)劃就需要幾個(gè)月??邓固卣f:“他們束縛了人們的手腳?!彼鴵?dān)任面向年輕人的奧巴馬競選籌資組織Gen 44的全國聯(lián)席主席,但在2011年11月憤而辭職。

????在洛杉磯,33歲的電影制作人夏朗?“布恩”? 薩利姆曾在2008年為奧巴馬賣命工作,組織了多場聚會,人們觀看喜劇、辯論或者電影,還可以與影視明星見面,吸引了不少年輕專業(yè)人才。他們交流看法,交結(jié)朋友,談笑間就籌集了160萬美元競選資金。而這些并不是奧巴馬團(tuán)隊(duì)的主意。薩利姆說:“我們自己就輕松搞定了一切?!边@一次薩利姆也打算幫忙,但他能感覺到來自青年支持者的怒火。“我認(rèn)識的很多人都不開心,”他說?!八麄兿胍?lián)系組織,參與活動,但沒人搭理。”

????奧巴馬的競選班子也許認(rèn)為他們無需擔(dān)心年輕人的支持。哈佛大學(xué)政治研究所(Institute of Politics)的最新全國民調(diào)顯示,在18-29歲的美國人中,奧巴馬領(lǐng)先其可能的共和黨對手米特?羅姆尼多達(dá)17個(gè)百分點(diǎn),比去年11月擴(kuò)大了6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。但年輕人還會那么熱心籌款,或者聯(lián)系朋友們?nèi)ブС挚偨y(tǒng)嗎?他們還會全力以赴出手投票嗎?2008年大選時(shí),有額外的200萬30歲以下美國人參與了投票,其中大多數(shù)都投給了奧巴馬。

????奧巴馬競選班子的高級官員告訴我,他們不能再像2008年那樣依靠支持者的自發(fā)組織。首先,奧巴馬的競選活動不能在言行上有損總統(tǒng)的第一任期。作為現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng),他必須更加小心,而2008年他只不過是個(gè)希望不大的候選人。

????And yet, four years after Obama was elected, nothing much has changed. The same rules apply: Give me your vote and I will rule. Rasiej is disappointed: "Lots of us believe he squandered the massive political constituency that was drawn to his message of hope and change." The 13 million supporters, for instance, could have helped Obama by lobbying their congressmen to back the health care legislation. Yet Rasiej thinks the White House, and in particular Obama's first chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, didn't believe in the power of "we." "They went back to the bully pulpit of the presidency. They literally put on the armour of 20th century communications."

????That attitude seems to have influenced the 2012 campaign.

????"It's a completely different campaign," says Nomiki Konst, 28. In 2008, she helped to help to raise millions of dollars for Obama by organizing events in Los Angeles with some big names in music and movies. "It was inspiring," she said. "When someone says you have the ability to do what you want, it gave me the power and the potential to do so much more. I could relay that inspiration to others." This time, "it's a traditional top-down, managed campaign." It now takes months to approve plans for events. "They're putting handcuffs on people," said Konst, who served as national co-chair of Gen 44, the Obama campaign's fundraising arm for young people. She got so frustrated that she resigned in November 2011.

????In Los Angeles, 33-year-old film executive Haroon "Boon" Saleem worked hard for Obama in 2008 to galvanize young professionals, with comedy nights, debate watching parties, movie nights where you could meet successful movie and T.V. celebrities. They spread the word, made friends, and helped to raise $1.6 million for the campaign. The ideas didn't come from the Obama organization. "We just did it," says Saleem. This time, Saleem is planning to help out, but he can feel the resentment in the young supporters: "I know a huge number of people who are unhappy," said Saleem. "They wanted to be connected and involved but they weren't."

????The Obama campaign may think that they don't' need to worry about youth support. A new national poll of America's 18- to 29-year-olds by Harvard's Institute of Politics shows that Barack Obama now leads his likely Republican opponent Mitt Romney a 17 point margin, a gain of six percentage points since November 2011. But will young people be as keen to raise money and connect with friends to support the president? Will they go out and vote in huge numbers, as they did in 2008, when an extra 2 million Americans under 30 voted, mostly for Obama?

????A senior figure in the Obama campaign tells me that they can't depend on self-organization in the way same that they did in 2008. For one thing, the Obama campaign cannot do or say anything that compromises the president's first term. As an incumbent, he needs to be more cautious in 2008 when he was a long-shot candidate.

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