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俄中角力民航客機(jī)新興市場(chǎng)之爭(zhēng)

俄中角力民航客機(jī)新興市場(chǎng)之爭(zhēng)

Cyrus Sanati 2012-05-22
俄羅斯客機(jī)在印尼墜毀,標(biāo)志著波音和空客仍然控制著地球的天空——但這種日子不會(huì)太久了。中俄兩國(guó)政府大力扶持本國(guó)飛機(jī)制造業(yè)的可能結(jié)果是,到2020年左右,兩大巨頭可能會(huì)失去對(duì)中國(guó)和獨(dú)聯(lián)體國(guó)家單通道客機(jī)市場(chǎng)的控制。

????上周,蘇霍伊公司的原型客機(jī)在赴印尼展演期間不幸墜毀的消息震驚了全世界,俄羅斯重振民用飛機(jī)業(yè)的夢(mèng)想不得不暫時(shí)擱淺。這起災(zāi)難似乎證明了全球民用航空業(yè)仍然是由波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)主宰的雙頭壟斷市場(chǎng),但這并不意味著俄羅斯和中國(guó)等新興競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者就沒戲了。中俄等國(guó)的航空企業(yè)得到了政府的大力支持,并且有數(shù)十億美元的資金可以自由支配,因此他們紛紛決心在有利可圖、且日益增長(zhǎng)的民用航空市場(chǎng)上分一杯羹。

????上周墜毀的飛機(jī)是俄羅斯最新設(shè)計(jì)的蘇霍伊超級(jí)100型支線客機(jī)。牽一發(fā)而動(dòng)全身,事故震動(dòng)了整個(gè)民航業(yè)。除了45人在這次空難中殞命外,這次墜機(jī)對(duì)剛剛重組的俄羅斯航空業(yè)也是個(gè)致命的打擊。這架飛機(jī)是在參加六國(guó)巡回展演的途中失事的。機(jī)上除了機(jī)組人員和記者之外,還有來自幾家印尼航空公司的顧問和代表。這些公司原本都有意訂購(gòu)這款新飛機(jī),充實(shí)不斷壯大的機(jī)組。

????印尼官方表示,由于墜機(jī)地點(diǎn)十分偏遠(yuǎn),因此對(duì)墜機(jī)原因的調(diào)查可能至少需要四個(gè)月甚至一年的時(shí)間。俄羅斯政府曾請(qǐng)求印尼官方將失事飛機(jī)的黑匣子和飛行記錄器轉(zhuǎn)交給莫斯科,但遭到了印尼方面的拒絕,理由是印尼政府希望確保獲得一個(gè)公平和客觀的調(diào)查結(jié)果。

????我們可以理解為什么俄羅斯急著控制、加快對(duì)失事原因的調(diào)查。因?yàn)槿绻{(diào)查結(jié)果顯示是某種設(shè)計(jì)缺陷導(dǎo)致了失事,它對(duì)俄方的損失將是難以估量的。另外在調(diào)查結(jié)束之前,潛在客戶也很可能暫停簽訂該機(jī)的采購(gòu)合約,影響俄方的生產(chǎn)日程。另外由于該型客機(jī)是蘇聯(lián)(the Soviet Union)解體后的第一架民用飛機(jī),因此客戶很可能也會(huì)對(duì)其它處于設(shè)計(jì)階段的俄制客機(jī)心生芥蒂。

????不過這并不意味著俄羅斯航空業(yè)走到頭了。俄羅斯總統(tǒng)普京把航空業(yè)的復(fù)興當(dāng)成了提升民族自豪感的一個(gè)重要工具,而且已經(jīng)為此投入了數(shù)十億美元的資金。另外,像圖波列夫(Tupolev)和伊留申(Ilyushin)等前蘇聯(lián)飛機(jī)制造廠一度曾是波音(Boeing)和空客(Airbus)的勁敵。只是隨著冷戰(zhàn)(the Cold War)于1992年結(jié)束,前蘇聯(lián)航空業(yè)因?yàn)槿狈Y金而難以為繼。

????Russia's dream of resurrecting its moribund commercial aircraft industry has been put on hold following last week's spectacular crash of its shiny new prototype. But while the accident appears to solidify the commercial aviation duopoly controlled by Boeing and Airbus, the Russians, as well as other new competitors in the field like the Chinese, shouldn't be written off just yet. With strong government support and billions of dollars at their disposal, the new start-ups are determined to grab a piece of the lucrative and growing market for commercial aircraft.

????The fiery crash of Russia's newly designed Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional aircraft last week in Indonesia has shaken the tightly knit commercial aviation industry. In addition to being a human tragedy -- 45 people lost their lives -- the crash was also a marketing disaster for Russia's revamped aviation industry. The crash occurred on a demonstration flight as part of a carefully scheduled six-nation Asian road show. Onboard were journalists, aircraft consultants and representatives from a number of Indonesian airlines who were looking to add the Russian-made jet to their growing fleet.

????Indonesian officials say that an investigation into the cause of the crash would take at least four months and could last as long as a year given the remote location of the crash site. The Indonesian government has refused the Russian government's request to transfer the plane's black box and flight recorder to Moscow, saying that it wants to ensure a fair an objective investigation into the cause of the crash.

????It is understandable why Russia wants to control and speed up the crash investigation. It has a lot to lose if it is determined that a design flaw of some sort was responsible for bringing down the jet. Potential customers will most likely hold off from signing any new agreements to purchase the plane until the investigation is complete, putting a dent in Moscow's production timetable. And since the plane is Russia's first new commercial aircraft since the fall of the Soviet Union, the fear is that customers will probably be wary of taking a peak at other new Russian jets on the drawing board.

????But this isn't the end of the road for Russia's aerospace industry. President Vladimir Putin considers the resurrection of the industry as a point of national pride and has committed billions to the cause. Russian aircraft makers like Tupolev and Ilyushin were at one time true competitors to Boeing (BA) and Airbus. But when the Cold War ended in 1992 funding to the industry dried up.

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