????作為回應(yīng)，伊朗央行周三施行了自己的“量化寬松”措施，向市場注入了大量儲備美元。里亞爾兌美元上漲了約20%，但美元需求依舊高漲。

????伊朗國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟這次遭受的沖擊應(yīng)當為德黑蘭的領(lǐng)導人敲響了警鐘。而它僅僅是同美國唇槍舌劍升級可能帶來的諸多負面影響之一。顯然，只要愿意，伊朗可以成功封鎖霍爾木茲海峽。它甚至都不需要出動海軍。只需在最窄的水域上沉掉幾艘駁船，放置幾個水雷就可以了，這樣每日出入波斯灣的幾十艘超級油輪就無法通行了。

????但問題是：伊朗能承受這樣的后果嗎？顯然不能。如果以這種粗暴的方式封閉海峽，不僅會阻止來自沙特、科威特和伊拉克的超級油輪通過這個海峽，同樣也會阻止伊朗自己的油輪進出。由于石油出口占伊朗經(jīng)濟比重近60%，這樣的打擊將是災(zāi)難性的。當然，油價也可能因此飛升至200美元/桶，但如果伊朗不能將自己的石油運出，送到國際市場，它也無法從自己一手制造的混亂中獲利。

????封鎖波斯灣就等于伊朗自斷手腕。來自海外的食品、燃料和其他重要物資也將無法運抵伊朗。由此造成的國內(nèi)混亂可能引發(fā)大規(guī)模暴亂，因為伊朗大部分民眾更關(guān)心自身生活質(zhì)量，而非伊斯蘭領(lǐng)導人同美國的博弈。

????同樣，美國也極不愿同伊朗發(fā)生沖突，畢竟伊朗在國際石油市場具有相當重要的地位。雖然美國煉油廠不需要伊朗石油，但亞洲和南歐的煉油廠都在進口伊朗石油。一旦將這部分供應(yīng)拿出市場，那些依賴伊朗石油的國家將被迫轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)γ绹隹谑偷膰?，造成全球供?yīng)減少，油價上漲。如果伊朗供應(yīng)缺失，沙特和俄羅斯都沒有足夠的閑置產(chǎn)能來填補這個缺口，因此汽油供應(yīng)肯定會出現(xiàn)短缺。結(jié)果可能會摧毀美國剛剛露頭的經(jīng)濟復蘇，并將整個歐洲推入深度經(jīng)濟衰退。

????美伊兩國可能相互憎恨，但它們的命運緊密相連?？紤]到戰(zhàn)爭可能對自身經(jīng)濟帶來的各種負面影響，任何一方都不想發(fā)動戰(zhàn)爭。油價最終應(yīng)該會平穩(wěn)下來，因為有一點已變得很清楚，這場東西方之爭更多的是關(guān)于金錢，而不是意識形態(tài)。

????In response, Iran's central bank yesterday instituted its own form of "quantitative easing," flooding the market with U.S. dollars from its reserves. The rial appreciated around 20% against the dollar but demand still remains high.

????This shock to Iran's internal economy should be a wake up call to the mullahs in Tehran. It is just one of possible negative side effects of ramping up the rhetoric with the U.S. To be clear, Iran could successfully close the Strait of Hormuz if it really wanted to. It doesn't even need its Navy to do it. It could simply sink a few barges in the narrowest parts of the waterway and lay a few mines. That would make the strait impassible to the dozens of supertankers that go in and out of the Persian Gulf everyday.

????But the question is: can Iran afford it? Clearly not. Shutting the straits down in such a crude fashion would not only block supertankers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq from getting through the strait, but would also block its own super tankers from getting through as well. With the oil trade making up around 60% of Iran's economy, that would be disastrous. Sure, oil could spike as high as $200 a barrel, but if Iran can't get its oil out to market, it won't be able to profit off the chaos it created.

????Shutting down the Persian Gulf would be equivalent to Iran slicing its own wrists. Vital deliveries of food, fuel and other goods from abroad would have no way of reaching the country. The internal chaos created could see a mass revolt in the country where the majority of the population cares more about their quality of life than the Mullah's chess game with Washington.

????Likewise, the U.S. would loathe having a conflict with Iran given how important it is to the international oil markets. While Iranian oil doesn't run through U.S. refineries, it does run through those in Asia and Southern Europe. Taking that supply off the market will force those countries that depend on Iranian oil to look to other countries that do export oil to the U.S., therefore decreasing worldwide supply and causing prices to spike. Saudi Arabia and Russia do not have enough spare capacity to replace all the barrels lost if Iran were to go offline, so there would certainly be shortages at the gas pump. The result could crush the nascent economic recovery in the U.S. and push all of Europe into a deep recession.

????The U.S. and Iran may hate each other, but their fates are inextricably linked. Neither side is itching for war given all the negative side effects that could come to both of their economies. Oil prices should eventually calm as it becomes clear that this battle between East and West is more about dollars than ideology.