債券之王預(yù)言美國國債崩盤

????比爾?格羅斯不是2011年唯一的美國國債空頭，但絕對(duì)是最受關(guān)注的一個(gè)。整個(gè)2011年，這位債券之王都在媒體上宣稱美國國債將崩盤，誰知預(yù)言落空。3月9日，Atlantic.com的新聞標(biāo)題是《太平洋投資管理公司（PIMCO）格羅斯：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)都不買美國國債，誰還敢買？》（PIMCO's Gross Asks: ' Who Will Buy Treasuries When the Fed Doesn't?）。4月份《洛杉磯時(shí)報(bào)》（Los Angeles Times）的新聞標(biāo)題是《PIMCO的格羅斯做空美國國債》（"Pimco's Gross bets against Treasuries）。5月份路透社（Reuters）又報(bào)道稱，《PIMCO的格羅斯加大做空美國國債的力度》。

????Pimco旗下2,400億美元的全回報(bào)基金（Total Return Fund）是全球最大的共同基金。格羅斯身為這只基金的管理者犯了一個(gè)非常嚴(yán)重的錯(cuò)誤，他認(rèn)定在經(jīng)濟(jì)不佳之際，早已高漲的美國國債無法延續(xù)漲勢(shì)。結(jié)果，2011年隨著投資者蜂擁進(jìn)入這個(gè)最安全的證券市場(chǎng)，美國國債的收益率繼續(xù)下降（同時(shí)價(jià)格上漲）。2011年底，格羅斯在言語中透出了悔意。2011年10月份，他在一份致投資者的特別函件中寫道：“這一年我投資不利”。

Treasuries falling

????Bill Gross wasn't the only one betting against Treasuries this year, but he was by far the most watched. The Bond King created headlines all year predicting a collapse that never came. "PIMCO's Gross Asks: ' Who Will Buy Treasuries When the Fed Doesn't?" read a March 9 headline on Atlantic.com; "Pimco's Gross bets against Treasuries" read an April headline in the Los Angeles Times. "PIMCO's Gross raises bet against US gov't debt" Reuters said in May.

????As manager of Pimco's $240-billion Total Return Fund, the world's largest mutual fund, Gross made a grievous error in betting that already inflated Treasuries couldn't rise further amid poor economic news. Instead, Treasury yields fell further (and prices rose) as investors flooded into the market's safest securities. Gross was sounding contrite by year's end. In October he wrote a special note to investors: "I'm just having a bad year," it read.