????本周三，亞馬遜（Amazon）正式發(fā)布平板電腦Kindle Fire。投資銀行Piper Jaffray的基恩?明斯特在第一時(shí)間向客戶發(fā)出報(bào)告稱，Kindle Fire根本不是蘋果（Apple）iPad的對(duì)手。不過，明斯特隨后補(bǔ)充說，“它的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力確實(shí)出乎我們的意料。”

????明斯特認(rèn)為Kindle Fire存在以下不足：

????? Kindle Fire的顯示屏僅為7英寸，而iPad的為10英寸（兩者之間的實(shí)際差距比數(shù)字顯示出來的差距要大，7英寸屏的面積僅僅是iPad 10英寸屏的45%。）

????? Kindle Fire只有8GB存儲(chǔ)空間，而iPad有16GB、32GB和64GB多種規(guī)格。

????? iPad有前后雙攝像頭并支持3G網(wǎng)絡(luò)，這些功能Kindle Fire一項(xiàng)都不沒有。

????明斯特表示，Kindle Fire的優(yōu)勢(shì)在于電影、音樂和網(wǎng)絡(luò)瀏覽功能。他認(rèn)為兩家公司都在揚(yáng)長(zhǎng)避短。

????在我們看來，蘋果致力于整合優(yōu)秀的硬件和軟件，利用供給方面的規(guī)模效應(yīng)來提供售價(jià)達(dá)499美元的高端平板電腦。而亞馬遜似乎意在提供擁有優(yōu)質(zhì)內(nèi)容的產(chǎn)品，它將自己可供出售的海量?jī)?nèi)容資本與云服務(wù)產(chǎn)品相結(jié)合，以提供世界一流的移動(dòng)數(shù)字產(chǎn)品。蘋果在iPad硬件上的毛利率超過30%，但亞馬遜可能每臺(tái)Kindle Fire就要虧損50美元。最后，蘋果的供應(yīng)鏈、制造和分銷能力使其與亞馬遜相比更具競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)，后者可能會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)很難為圣誕銷售旺季生產(chǎn)出上百萬臺(tái)Kindle Fire。

????明斯特預(yù)計(jì)蘋果在平板電腦市場(chǎng)的份額將從現(xiàn)在的90%跌至2012年的60%，Android的市場(chǎng)份額將從目前的不到10%上升到30%左右。他認(rèn)為Kindle Fire有望成為第一款推動(dòng)Android平板市場(chǎng)份額增長(zhǎng)的產(chǎn)品。

????明斯特此前預(yù)計(jì)蘋果將在2012年售出5,000萬臺(tái)iPad 2，現(xiàn)在他仍堅(jiān)持這一看法，盡管他認(rèn)為這一數(shù)字可能有些“保守”。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????The Kindle Fire that Amazon (AMZN) introduced Wednesday is not a true competitor of Apple's (AAPL) iPad, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster declared in a note to clients posted shortly afterward. But, he quickly added, "it is more competitive than we anticipated."

????On the Fire's minus side, he cites:

????? The Kindle Fire's 7" screen compared to the 10" iPad (a bigger difference than the numbers make it seem; a 7" screen is only 45% as large as the iPad's 10" screen.)

????? The Fire has 8GB of storage compared to the iPad at 16GB, 32GB, or 64GB.

????? The iPad has two cameras and a 3G option; the Kindle Fire has neither

????On the Fire's plus side he cites the Kindle's movie, music, and Web browsing capabilities.

????Both companies, he writes, are focusing on their core skills:

????In our view, Apple has focused on a combination of superior hardware and software, leveraging supply-side economies of scale to offer a premium tablet for $499. Alternatively, Amazon appears to be focusing on a product with superior content delivery; the company is leveraging its wide range of content assets available for sale in conjunction with its Cloud Services product for world class, mobile, digital delivery. Apple is also monetizing the hardware upfront with a 30%+ gross margin on the iPad, whereas Amazon is likely losing about $50 per Kindle Fire. Finally, Apple's supply chain, production and distribution capabilities provide a competitive advantage over Amazon, which may find it difficult to produce more than a few million Kindle Fires for the holiday season.

????Munster expects Apple's share of the tablet market to fall from 90% today to 60% in 2012, and for the Android share to rise from less than 10% to about 30%. The Kindle Fire, he says, likely to be one of the first Android tablet to drive those share gains.

????He had previously estimated that Apple would sell 50 million iPads in calendar 2012, and he's sticking with that number, although he believes it may be "conservative."