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中國(guó)的綠色增長(zhǎng):且聽(tīng)李路為何樂(lè)觀

中國(guó)的綠色增長(zhǎng):且聽(tīng)李路為何樂(lè)觀

Scott Woolley 2011-04-14
中國(guó)的增長(zhǎng)規(guī)模是全球前所未有的。這種增長(zhǎng)能是綠色的么?
An operating power plant in China.
圖片來(lái)源:維基百科

????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的環(huán)境后果眾所周知,且觸目驚心:更多的汽車(chē),更多的煤炭和更多的有毒污物染黑了中國(guó)的小溪和河流。不那么為人所知的是為何還有理由心存希望。

????“今年是關(guān)鍵的一年,一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)變的時(shí)刻,”喜馬拉雅資本管理公司(Himalaya Capital Management) 董事長(zhǎng)李路表示。李路也是股神沃倫?巴菲特將來(lái)退休后的熱門(mén)接班候選人[最近隨著主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手戴維?索科爾同伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)分道揚(yáng)鑣,李路的入選概率上升]。

????李路在上周《財(cái)富》雜志(Fortune)舉辦的頭腦風(fēng)暴綠色會(huì)議(Brainstorm Green)上向觀眾宣稱,中國(guó)政府正在考慮一個(gè)五年計(jì)劃,可能設(shè)立激動(dòng)人心的污染減排目標(biāo)。中國(guó)的兩大電網(wǎng)目前都在測(cè)試可存儲(chǔ)來(lái)自于風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能等綠色能源發(fā)電的系統(tǒng)。如果試運(yùn)行證明是有效的,李路相信這將為中國(guó)政府“在短時(shí)間內(nèi)以十億瓦級(jí)別”推廣清潔能源打開(kāi)了大門(mén)。

????李路表示,這股即將到來(lái)的綠色浪潮——若果真成為現(xiàn)實(shí)——背后的推動(dòng)力并不是中國(guó)巨大的二氧化碳排放量(中國(guó)已超過(guò)美國(guó)成為全球最大的溫室氣體排放國(guó)),而是中國(guó)眾多燃煤工廠排放的二氧化硫。他指出,“煤炭在中國(guó)造成的真正威脅并非二氧化碳,而是二氧化硫。這會(huì)造成人們死亡。”

????李路認(rèn)為中國(guó)要迅速顯著地降低對(duì)煤炭的依賴,最佳選擇是深藏在其國(guó)土之下的天然氣儲(chǔ)藏。雖然中國(guó)不像美國(guó)那樣已對(duì)龐大的頁(yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)藏有相當(dāng)?shù)牧私猓?yè)巖氣儲(chǔ)藏增加了美國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量,并推低了美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)的天然氣價(jià)格),但是李路相信中國(guó)的頁(yè)巖也蘊(yùn)藏著類(lèi)似的光明前景。

????The environmental consequences of China's economic growth are both well-known and horrifying: more cars, more coal and more toxic crud fouling its streams and rivers. Less appreciated are the reasons for hope.

????"This is a critical year, really a transformational moment," says Li Lu, the chairman of Himalaya Capital Management and a leading candidate to take over for Warren Buffett when the investing guru eventually retires. (Li's chances improved recently when leading rival David Sokol parted ways with Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).)

????The Chinese government is mulling a five-year plan with potentially dramatic goals for reductions in pollution, Li told an audience at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference this week. China's two major power grids are both testing systems that can store green energy from wind and solar. If they prove efficient in ongoing trials, Li believes, it will open the door to the government rolling out clean energy "on a gigawatt scale in a short amount of time."

????The driving force behind the coming green wave -- if it indeed materializes -- will not be the massive carbon dioxide output by China, which has passed the U.S. as the biggest greenhouse gas emitter. Instead it's the sulfer dioxide the country's coal plants emit, he says. "The real threat of coal in China is not the CO2 it's the SO2. It's killing people," Li says.

????Li believes that the best bet for quickly and dramatically slashing its reliance on coal are deposits of natural gas buried deep underneath the country. While not as well understood as the massive shale deposits in the U.S. that have boosted the production of natural gas and sent its price plunging, Li is confident China's shale holds similar good news.

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