????震后的日本滿目瘡痍，就像好萊塢災(zāi)難大片中的特效場景一樣——只不過這次一切都是真的。

????據(jù)《美國汽車新聞》（Automotive News）報道，豐田汽車公司（Toyota）派出了兩支救援車隊，向遭受地震沉重打擊的日本北部地區(qū)運送食物、水和便攜馬桶等。這兩只車隊由6輛運水車、2輛運油車和9輛運貨車組成。地震災(zāi)區(qū)里有豐田的兩家零部件工廠和兩家分公司，豐田希望向這一地區(qū)提供救濟。自從上上周五發(fā)生地震后，豐田已經(jīng)關(guān)閉了這四家機構(gòu)。這次任務(wù)獲得了一些振奮人心的消息。豐田的一位發(fā)言人表示，盡管工廠遭受了一些損壞，但是公司并沒有接到傷亡報告。

????不過，這次救濟行動還不足以讓其它地方的裝配線重新開動起來。豐田表示，它的12家主要的裝配廠將一直關(guān)閉到本周二。此外豐田的一位發(fā)言人表示，豐田公司可能會因地震而損失95000臺產(chǎn)品。在北美，豐田則通過取消加班生產(chǎn)，減緩了生產(chǎn)速度，以保存零部件。

????另兩家日本汽車制造商本田（Honda）和馬自達(dá)（Mazda）也表示，他們在日本的所有工廠會一直關(guān)閉到上周日。鈴木汽車公司（Suzuki Motor Corp.）在日本的所有工廠則會關(guān)閉到本周一。

????現(xiàn)在全日本都在搶救生者、埋葬死者，一邊等待來自福島第一核電站的進(jìn)一步消息。與此同時，日本汽車業(yè)也正在著手應(yīng)對這場災(zāi)難，它很可能使日本汽車業(yè)在很長一段時間里無法運轉(zhuǎn)。韓國東陽證券（Tong Yang Securities）的一份報告指出：“我們不指望日本的汽車生產(chǎn)會在短期內(nèi)恢復(fù)正常。在我們可以確定哪些汽車零部件工廠遭受了損失、以及遭受了多大損失之前，很難預(yù)測何時生產(chǎn)才會繼續(xù)。”

????而與此同時，證券分析師們也正忙著做他們最擅長的事——分析哪些證券將成為這場災(zāi)難的贏家，哪些證券將成為輸家，然后根據(jù)分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行押寶。

????一份不完全的表格顯示，鋼鐵制造商、韓國汽車制造商以及二手車所有者將從這次災(zāi)難中獲益；而輸家則包括美國汽車零售商、稀有金屬鉑和鈀的生產(chǎn)商、零部件制造商，以及日本汽車業(yè)自身。

????東陽證券指出，在1995年的神戶大地震之后的六個月時間里，豐田、本田和日產(chǎn)公司（Nissan）的股票分別下跌了22%、35%和40%，而且他們用了13個月的時間才從地震中恢復(fù)過來。

????本田和馬自達(dá)宣布，他們上周暫停生產(chǎn)。對于本田來說，這意味著他們將損失16600臺汽車。HIS環(huán)球視野咨詢公司指出，日本地震給全球汽車生產(chǎn)帶來的損失高達(dá)每天36700臺。這意味著二手日本車的需求將增加，而價格也將上漲。

????而材料價格則會沿著相反的方向移動。生產(chǎn)降低，意味著對鈀和鉑的需求將減少，這兩種金屬主要用于生產(chǎn)汽車的催化轉(zhuǎn)換器。另一方面，馬來西亞的艾芬投資銀行（Affin Investment Bank）則表示，由于日本震后重建需要大量鋼鐵，因而鋼鐵價格將會上漲。而薄、厚鋼板及卷鋼的供給則受到地震沖擊。

????美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）指出，在美國，上市大型汽車經(jīng)銷商受日本地震的影響最大，因為日本汽車業(yè)的生產(chǎn)停止，意味著日本品牌的汽車出口減少了，因而日本汽車的銷量也隨之減少。美國AutoNation汽車租賃公司、彭斯克汽車集團（Penske Automotive Group）以及Group One（美國第四大汽車經(jīng)銷商——譯注）等公司至少有三分之一的銷售額來自豐田、本田和日產(chǎn)等日本品牌。不過美國銀行指出，從總體上看，這次災(zāi)難的影響還是比較小的，只相當(dāng)于全年中有一天出現(xiàn)了供給中斷。

????日本汽車業(yè)的生產(chǎn)中斷，給日本汽車業(yè)的亞洲宿敵韓國提供了機會?，F(xiàn)代證券（Hyundai Securities）表示：“在全球市場上，韓國汽車制造商是日本汽車業(yè)的競爭對手。這次日本汽車制造商的生產(chǎn)和出口出現(xiàn)中斷，韓國汽車制造商很可能從中獲益。同時有望獲益的還有韓國零部件制造商，因為日本和全球其它汽車制造商很可能將更多的業(yè)務(wù)外包給韓國零部件制造商。”

????當(dāng)然，沒有人想從別人的不幸中獲得好處。按當(dāng)前狀況來看，這場災(zāi)難在短期內(nèi)將會帶來短缺、反常和間斷。不過日本汽車制造商以前就曾接受過災(zāi)難的洗禮，而且有成功從災(zāi)難中恢復(fù)的經(jīng)驗。

????《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）是美國最具影響力的汽車評論媒體，根據(jù)該媒體最近的排名，本田、斯巴魯（Subaru）和豐田是美國車市上的三家最佳汽車制造商（評判標(biāo)準(zhǔn)是根據(jù)預(yù)測可靠性和路試結(jié)果）。同時，馬自達(dá)和日產(chǎn)的得分也超過了梅塞德斯-奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）和寶馬（BMW）等知名品牌。

????就連地震加海嘯也不大可能在多大程度上改變這一排名。

????譯者：樸成奎

????The scene might have been lifted from from one of those digital effect-laden Hollywood catastrophe movies -- except this time it was all too real.

????According to Automotive News, Toyota (TM) dispatched two convoys of rescue vehicles -- six water tankers, two-fuel tankers, and nine cargo carriers -- to heavily-damaged northern Japan carrying food, water, and portable toilets. Toyota wanted to bring relief to an area where it operates two parts plants, as do two Toyota subsidiaries. All four facilities had been shut down since the earthquake on Friday. The mission got some welcome news. A Toyota spokesman said there were no reports of deaths or injuries, though the plants themselves suffered some damage.

????The relief effort wasn't enough to get assembly lines restarted elsewhere, however. Toyota said it will keep all of its 12 main assembly plants in Japan closed through Tuesday and a spokeswoman says it may lose 95,000 units of production. In North America, Toyota slowed production by canceling overtime shifts to conserve parts.

????Honda and Mazda Motor Corp. have said all their plants in Japan will be closed until Sunday. Suzuki Motor Corp. planned to keep all factories in the nation shut until Monday.

????As Japan rescues the living, buries its dead, and awaits the outcome of efforts to stabilize its damaged nuclear reactors, the nation's auto industry is still trying to come to grips with a disaster that threatens to hamstring operations for a good long while. "We do not expect production to normalize any time soon," says a report by Korea's Tong Yang Securities. "It is hard to predict when production may resume until we can ascertain which auto parts makers have been hit and to what extent."

????Securities analysts, meanwhile, are busy doing what they do best: Figuring out who the winners and losers will be as a result of the triple-headed catastrophe and bet on the outcome.

????An incomplete tabulation suggests that the winners will include steel makers, Korean automakers, and used car owners. Among the losers: U.S. auto retailers, platinum and palladium producers, parts suppliers, and the Japanese auto industry itself.

????In the six months following the Kobe earthquake of January 1995, shares of Toyota, Honda (HMC), and Nissan (NSANY) fell 22%, 35%, and 40% respectively, according to Tong Yang Securities, and needed up to 13 months to recover.

????Both Honda and Mazda (MZDAF) announced that they were suspending production for the rest of the week. For Honda, it means the loss of 16,600 vehicles. Overall, HIS figures a global production loss of some 36,700 vehicles a day. That means more demand for used Japanese vehicles and hence higher prices.

????Materials prices could move in opposite directions. Lower production also means less demand for palladium and platinum, used in the production of catalytic converters. By contrast, Malaysia's Affin Investment Bank says post-quake reconstruction will push steel prices higher as demand increases. Supplies of sheet, plate, and coil steel were hit by the earthquake.

????In the U.S., Bank of America Merrill Lynch figures that big, publicly-traded car dealers have the most exposure to the Japanese catastrophe, because production halts mean fewer exports of Japanese brands, and thus fewer sales. AutoNation (AN, Fortune 500), Penske Automotive Group (PAG, Fortune 500), and Group One all get more than a third of their sales from Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. Overall, however, Bank of America figures the impact will be small -- equivalent to one day of supply disruption over a full year.

????The disruption of production in Japan creates opportunities for ancient rivals on the Asia mainland. "Korean automakers, which compete with Japanese rivals in the global market, are likely to benefit from the disruption to production and exports to Japanese auto makers," says Hyundai Securities."Benefits are expected also for [Korean] parts makers as well since Japanese and global automakers are likely to increase outsourcing to them."

????Of course, no one wants to profit from someone else's misfortune. As it stands now, the disaster will create short-term shortages, anomalies, and discontinuities. But Japanese automakers have been tested by catastrophe before and successfully recovered.

????According to the latest ranking by Consumer Reports, the nation's most influential car advisor, Honda, Subaru, and Toyota stand as the three most proficient automakers selling cars in the U.S. (as measured by predicted reliability and road test results) while Mazda and Nissan outscore the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

????Even an earthquake followed by a tsunami is unlikely to materially change that ranking.